Despite not having prior experience in politics, Bobby was backed by a giant coalition of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Gerindra Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Golkar Party, the NasDem party, the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), the Hanura Party and the United Development Party (PPP).

The coalition represents a combined 39 seats at the Medan Legislative Council.

Bobby is running alongside Gerindra politician Aulia Rachman, who is a former chairman of Commission II of the Medan Legislative Council.

Akhyar, on the other hand, is a well-known local politician with more than 20 years of experience in Medan politics.

In the 2015 regional election, Akhyar was elected as Medan deputy mayor alongside Mayor Dzulmi Edin. Since October 2019, however, Akhyar has served as the city’s acting mayor after Dzulmi was arrested by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) for graft.

Dzulmi was later found guilty of accepting a total of Rp 2.1 billion in bribes from a number of Medan city officials and was sentenced to six years in prison.

Akhyar's running mate, Salman Alfarisi, is a politician from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and a former deputy chairman of the North Sumatra Regional Legislative Council (DPRD).

The Akhyar-Salman ticket is being endorsed by just two parties, the Democratic party and the PKS.

Both parties control seven and four council seats respectively, passing the minimum 10-seat requirement needed to secure a nomination by a slim margin.

Rift inside the ruling PDI-P

Prior to running for 2020's Medan mayoral race, Akhyar was a senior PDI-P politician and the head of the party's North Sumatra chapter. He was initially a strong contender to be nominated by the PDI-P for the mayoral election.

Akhyar's hope to secure a candidacy in the mayoral race, however, hung by a thread after Bobby joined the party in March.

With the party's clear intention to nominate Bobby, Akhyar finally jumped ship and joined the Democratic Party in July, around two weeks before the PDI-P officially announced its support for the Bobby-Aulia ticket.

Akhyar officially was fired by the PDI-P on Aug. 9, with the acting chairperson of the PDI-P’s North Sumatra branch, Djarot Saiful Hidayat, accusing Akhyar of betraying the ruling party, which had helped him grow as a politician.

Bobby's nomination had caused an apparent rift within the party, as several cadres expressed their strong disapproval of the party's decision.

They even created the PDI-P 98 Exponent Forum to show support for Akhyar, claiming they were disappointed that the party had nominated a non-cadre for the mayoral race.

Forum leader and Medan Johor branch executive board (DPC) chair Gumana Lubis told The Jakarta Post in August that he believed 60 percent of traditional PDI-P voters in Medan would have likely voted for Akhyar, as both Bobby and Aulia were non-cadres.

The PDI-P later fired Gumana and three other DPC heads, Tumpal Sitanggang, Suhardian and Prana Sinuraya, for supporting Akhyar and opposing the party's decision to nominate Bobby.

Neck-and-neck race

The head of political studies at North Sumatra University (USU), Warijo, said that Medan PDI-P voters would likely be divided in the upcoming regional election.

"Some will still vote for Akhyar, who is a former senior politician in the party. The dismissal of several DPC execs might even benefit him," Warijo told the Post on Wednesday.

He also suggested that the large number of political parties supporting Bobby would not guarantee him an easy win.

"During regional elections, voters tend to consider the candidates' prominence over the political parties that support them. There is no guarantee that a candidate would win simply because he is backed by a lot of political parties," Warijo explained.

He predicted that many supporters of political parties that endorsed the Bobby-Aulia candidacy would vote for Akhyar-Salman, as the latter continued to strengthen its approach using identity politics, including by seeking support from prominent Muslim preacher Abdul Somad.

Bobby, on the other hand, received support not only from a huge coalition of political parties, but also from the Presidential Palace. "Without the palace's support, it would be difficult for Bobby to win," Warijo said.

Candidates' Electability

According to a recent survey by local pollster Roda Tiga Konsultan (RTK), the Akhyar-Salman pair outperformed the Bobby-Aulia ticket in terms of electability ratings.

From Nov. 8 to 11, RTK asked 850 respondents from all districts in Medan to cast simulation ballots and found that 53.1 percent voted for Akhyar-Salman, followed by 37.3 percent for Bobby-Aulia and the remaining 9.6 percent abstained.

However, another local pollster, the Survey and Disseminations Institute of North Sumatra State Islamic University (LSS-UINSU), found contradictory results.

Based on its survey, which was conducted from Oct. 21 to 23, Akhyar-Salman lagged behind the rival ticket with a 20.8 percent electability rating. Meanwhile, the Bobby-Aulia pairing scored 31.4 percent.

However, LSS-UINSU executive director Salahuddin Harahap said the vast majority of the survey respondents were swing voters, which account for 41.7 percent of respondents.

"The swing voter rate in Medan is quite high, so candidates must work extra hard to gain support from the undecided voters," Salahuddin said.

Popular

Volcano erupts in North Sulawesi, hundreds evacuated

Dubai roads, airport reel from floods after record rains

Ramadan boosts consumer confidence, retail sales