In line with the 2015 Paris Agreement, one key call is how to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to prevent extreme weather events and other worst-case climate impacts, such as melting glaciers and landslides. According to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), as of December 2020 the global average temperature rise was 1.2 degrees.

Carbon emissions cause global warming. To prevent a temperature rise between 1.5 and 2 degrees, efforts to reduce carbon emissions to net-zero are imperative. Net-zero means that actions, such as the use of carbon capture technology, are taken to remove any remaining greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.   

Apparently, Biden wants the summit “to catalyze efforts that keep that 1.5 degree Celsius goal within reach” and have leaders commit to the goal at this year’s annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasgow from Nov. 1 to 12.

The US will announce an “ambitious” 2030 emissions target as its new nationally determined contribution (NDC).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a regular meeting of the world’s climate scientists who assess climate issues, states that the global electricity mix by 2030 should be 47 to 65 percent renewable energy in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

Meanwhile, the December 2020 Emissions Gap Report (EGR) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) found that the world was still heading for a temperature rise in excess of 3 degrees this century despite a brief dip in carbon dioxide emissions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The difference between where we are likely to be and where we need to be is known as the “emissions gap”.

The EGR pays close attention to Group of 20 members, which are major advanced and emerging economies that include Indonesia. They account for 78 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions and can determine global emissions trends and the extent to which the 2030 emissions gap will be closed, the EGR stated.

Collectively, the report continues, the G20 members are not on track to achieve their unconditional NDC commitments based on pre-COVID-19 projections. Nine members are on track and five are not, while projections for Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are inconclusive because of insufficient information, the EGR noted.

Indonesia’s first NDC, as announced in 2015, aims to reduce carbon emissions unconditionally by 29 percent by the country’s own means and by 41 percent conditionally with international cooperation.

At the time of writing, the government has not communicated its updated NDC to the UNFCCC secretariat. However, in a March 19 virtual press briefing, climate change director general Ruandha Agung Sugardiman of the Environment and Forestry Ministry said Indonesia intended to maintain its 29/41 target. Further, the government envisions having a net-zero economy by 2070, a 20-year lag behind the Paris Agreement target.

The 2070 target, based on models, allows for a 5 to 7 percent annual economic growth rate, Ruandha said.

After the press conference, I asked Ruandha what the government’s considerations were for not increasing its emissions reduction target and whether 2070 as the determined net-zero target date was meant to accommodate the energy sector because in 2050 fossil fuels would still make up 69 percent of Indonesia’s energy mix.

According to the Energy Ministry, oil accounts for 20 percent, natural gas 24 percent and coal 25 percent of the energy mix, with renewable energy accounting for 31 percent.

Ruandha, however, did not reply.

Apparently, politics rules over science in Indonesia’s energy and climate policy. In Indonesia, energy plus forest and peat fires contribute 80 percent of carbon emissions.

Although Indonesia has reduced land-use-change-related fires, coal burning remains a major carbon emitter. The country’s power grid mainly uses coal-fired power plants.

The government intends to maintain this fossil-fuel-based energy model into the mid-century to drive the economy. Jokowi has a grand design for as many as 89 national strategic projects. To spur his pro-business plan, he enacted the controversial Job Creation Law last year, which weakens environmental safeguards. Therefore, the likely increase in carbon emissions has dampened any ambition to boost Indonesia’s 29/41 climate plan.

During the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh in 2009, then-president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced Indonesia’s goal of reducing emissions by 26 percent by 2020. Fellow leaders, including host Barack Obama, applauded Yudhoyono for his climate leadership.      

In the upcoming Climate Leaders’ Summit, Indonesia could appear to be a back line participant and not a frontline initiator.

To demonstrate his climate leadership, Jokowi must show that Indonesia’s climate plan is consistent with the Paris Agreement and that its updated NDC has been upgraded to meet the global 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

To showcase that resolve, Jokowi should act to make 50 percent of Indonesia’s electricity mix come from renewable energy and end coal use by 2050. Renewable energy can create millions of new jobs and make the 5 to 7 percent annual growth rate target achievable.

Indonesia is slow in renewable energy. Expense is a problem. Building a geothermal power plant, for example, costs more than twice the price of a coal-fired plant.

Fortunately, Jokowi can act decisively. To beat the pandemic, he ordered free vaccinations for 188 million Indonesians, which will cost the state Rp 130.03 trillion (US$9 billion). To galvanize renewable energy and green investments, Jokowi should instate a similar drive and pole vault to the front lines as a proven climate leader.

 ***

The writer is a senior journalist and instructor at the Dr. Soetomo Press Institute (LPDS) in Jakarta.