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Indonesian air traffic forecast to fully recover in 2026
A latest forecast expects domestic flight traffic to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024 and international traffic by 2026 assuming COVID-19 containment programs go according to plan.
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ndonesia’s domestic and international flight volume is projected to fully recover by 2026, mainly assuming outbreak containment goes as planned, according to a recent key study.
Domestic flight volume is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2024 while international volumes in 2026, according to the study conducted by Padjadjaran University (UNPAD) and commissioned by the Indonesia National Air Carrier Association (INACA).
UNPAD researchers explained on Thursday the projections assumed that Indonesia successfully completed its second phase vaccination program of 38.87 million citizens by March 2022 and that most of Asia, Europe and the United States optimized their vaccination programs by that same year, as per schedule.
“Yes, the vaccine will be a game changer, but so will adopting health protocols and providing good health facilities in the airline industry. These will improve public trust and revive the airline industry,” said lead researcher and UNPAD economic professor Yayan Satyakti on Thursday.
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The white paper is set to be INACA’s main reference in viewing Indonesia’s airline industry outlook in the post-pandemic years after flights plummeted 64.1 percent year-on-year (yoy) in March 2020 to 470,898 visitors, a level unseen in more than a decade, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data.
Furthermore, the study quantitatively confirms the industry’s long-held belief that Indonesia’s airline industry’s recovery is pegged, above all, on domestic travel and outbreak containment, the latter of which poses the greater challenge.
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“We know that optimism is important but creating realistic projections is equally important so that all stakeholders in the airline industry can adjust to government programs,” said INACA chairman Denon Prawiraatmadja in a Thursday statement.
The study projects Indonesia’s domestic flight volumes to begin a robust recovery in 2022 before fully recovering in 2024, when annual volumes reach 78.73 million passengers, compared to the 79.02 million in 2019, before the pandemic struck the world.
Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta and East Java would benefit the most from a recovery in domestic flights whereas Bali would be relatively unchanged as the tourist island’s visits mainly come from international tourists.
However, the study also found that a 50 percent slowdown in vaccine distribution would push back the airline industry’s recovery by one year to 2025, when volumes reach 83.2 million passengers.
Indonesia ultimately plans to vaccinate, in two phases, 181.5 million citizens – equal to 70 percent of the total population – by March 2022 in achieving herd immunity but a recent setback with AstraZeneca vaccine shipments from India has put the plan at risk.
Read also: Indonesian government promises big, then falters in vaccine procurement
National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) spokesman Raditya Jati noted that, other than the vaccine, the agency and Transportation Ministry had issued several regulations to spur domestic travel.
A case in point, regulators most recently allowed key airports to use GeNose coronavirus breathalyzers to test for COVID-19 in passengers. The device delivers results much faster and costs much less than PCR and antigen tests but is not yet peer reviewed.
“[We] have issued several policies to support the recovery of the airline industry, including the regulations to open the sectors related to the airline industry but without going against the President’s orders to contain the spread of the pandemic,” said Raditya.
The study also projects international flight volumes to begin a robust recovery in 2023 and fully recover by 2026, when passenger volumes reach 38.21 million, compared to the 36.59 million before the pandemic in 2019.
UNPAD’s Yayan noted that, in the case of international flights, both a doubling and halving of vaccination rates little affected the projections. A full recovery would occur in 2026 either way albeit with a few months difference.
“This is because the international community is literate in health protocols and not just reliant on vaccines,” he said.
