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COVID-19 far more widespread in Indonesia than official data show: Studies
The country of 270 million has recorded 1.83 million positive cases, but epidemiologists have long believed the true scale of the spread has been obscured by a lack of testing and contact tracing.
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OVID-19 is many times more prevalent in Indonesia than shown by official figures in the world's fourth most populous country, authors of two new studies told Reuters.
The country of 270 million has recorded 1.83 million positive cases, but epidemiologists have long believed the true scale of the spread has been obscured by a lack of testing and contact tracing.
The results of Indonesia's first major seroprevalence studies – which test for antibodies – were revealed exclusively to Reuters.
One nationwide study between December and January suggested 15 percent of Indonesians had already contracted COVID-19 – when official figures at the end of January had recorded infections among only around 0.4 percent of people.
Even now, Indonesia's total positive infections are only around 0.7 percent of the population.
The results of the survey were not unexpected given under reporting, said Pandu Riono, a University of Indonesia epidemiologist who worked on the study carried out with help from the World Health Organization.
Siti Nadia Tarmizi, a senior health ministry official, said it was possible the study was preliminary, but there might be more cases than officially reported because many cases were asymptomatic.
She said Indonesia had low contact tracing and a lack of laboratories to process tests.
Based on blood tests, seroprevalence studies detect antibodies which show up people who likely already contracted the disease. The official figures are largely based on swab tests, which detect the virus itself and only reveal those who have it at the time.
Antibodies develop one to three weeks after someone contracts the virus and stay in the body for months.
Seroprevalence studies in other countries – including India – have also revealed more widespread infections.
"Our official surveillance system cannot detect COVID-19 cases. It is weak," said the principal investigator for the University of Indonesia study, Tri Yunis Miko Wahyono, who commented on it but was not authorized to confirm the figures.
"Contact tracing and testing in Indonesia is very poor and explains why so few cases are detected."
Fellow study author Pandu said that although the study showed the wider spread of the virus, Indonesia still appeared to be far from achieving herd immunity – making it a priority to speed up vaccination.
Just 6 percent of Indonesia's targeted population of 181 million have been fully vaccinated with two doses so far, while 9.4 percent have had one shot, according to government data.
Preliminary results of a separate seroprevalence study in Bali, done by the University of Udayana, found 17 per cent of those tested in September and November appeared to have been infected, principal investigator Anak Agung Sagung Sawitri told Reuters.
That was 53 times higher than rate of infection based on the cases officially recorded at the time on the tourist island, which is planning to reopen to international visitors next month.
The reopening is opposed by some public health experts, including academic and doctor Ady Wirawan.
"Testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine is very, very weak in Bali," he said.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's health minister said on Thursday it was still too early to talk about needing to raise the alert level and go into a full lockdown, but the spike in COVID-19 infections on island gave him no reason for optimism.
Taiwan has been model for how to control the pandemic, but its increase in domestic infections, though not exploding, has alarmed the government, which has limited gatherings and closed entertainment venues.
The government is also dealing with delays in reporting test results, which has led to it revising its total numbers on a daily basis.
Health Minister Chen Shih-chung, speaking at his daily news briefing, said he was concerned at a rise in younger people getting infected, who may not be taking curbs as seriously and meeting when they shouldn't be.
"There's no cause for optimism," he said of the trend in infections.
However, he said it was still "too early" to talk about going into Taiwan's highest alert level, which would be an effective lockdown, something the government has not had to do since the pandemic began.
Next weekend marks the traditional Dragon Boat festival, when people often travel to see family members in other parts of Taiwan, and Chen said people should not be travelling if there was no urgent need.
"I hope that everyone does not go back to their hometowns if they do not need to," he said.
Taiwan reported on Thursday 583 domestic COVID-19 infections, including 219 cases added to recent days' totals as it reflects delays in reporting positive tests.
The figure was an increase from 549 reported on Wednesday, which also included cases from previous days.
Most of the infections have been concentrated in Taipei and its neighboring city, but Chen said they were concerned about an outbreak in a factory dormitory in Miaoli in northern Taiwan.
The government has only vaccinated some 3 percent of Taiwan's 23.5 million people, though has millions more shots on order whose delivery has been delayed by global supply shortages.
