Whether the Constitution will be amended by the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) to allow Jokowi to extend his two five-year terms, or the Constitution remains unchanged and he proves his repeated promise to step down in October 2024, there are few reasons to suggest that Jokowi will become a lame-duck leader as often happens in democratic countries.

Unless he is embroiled in scandals that severely damage his credibility, Jokowi will act not only as a kingmaker during the 2024 presidential election, but will be the king himself.

Jokowi does not have any political party, but trust me, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) will need him more than the other way around. In 2014, the party’s chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri firmly told him that he was just a party worker despite his ascendancy to presidency. But 10 years later, in 2024, maybe the PDI-P will be like a craftsman working for the former furniture businessman.

You may suspect I am a Jokowi’s trumpeter who plays beautiful songs to glorify him or make him a cult personality.

I have several times written my opposition to the idea of extending the presidential term by any means, including constitutional amendment. We should not repeat the era of dictatorship the country endured in the past under Sukarno and Soeharto.

Indonesia held its first democratic elections in 1999 and amended the 1945 Constitution four times until 2002 to ensure that the country moved toward a full-fledged democracy.

Since 2004, Indonesian people have enjoyed the right to directly vote for their president and vice president as the manifestation of true democracy. And since 2005, they have had the right to choose their regents, mayors and governors directly.

One man one vote is a very simple but the most fair mechanism of an election. If we do not elect our leaders in 2024 through direct election, we would be betraying our commitment to democracy. With all our shortcomings, we are recognized as the world’s third-largest democracy after India and the United States.

Realpolitik, however, can show a different picture. Technically it is not difficult for Jokowi to amend the Constitution to enable him to cling to power beyond 2024. His ruling coalition controls 82 percent of the House of Representatives, and with the Regional Representatives Council still weak and easy to control, Jokowi can push for such an amendment.

Nearly all political parties are dependent on the President. Opposition barely exists, if any at all.

The Kompas survey showed almost three-quarters of the respondents (73.9 percent) were satisfied with the performance of the Jokowi administration. The level of satisfaction covers nearly all fields of government performance.

The highest score, or 76.4 percent, was given to the fields of health, education and poverty alleviation. The government was highly praised for its ability to relatively control the COVID-19 pandemic, although it is possible that the achievement will not last permanently because there is no single country in the world that has been able to completely win the war against the deadly disease.

Respondents gave the second highest satisfaction rating to political and security performance, with a rate of 74.6 percent. In law enforcement, the score was lower, at 69 percent. The lowest score was for economic development at 60.4 percent.

The Golkar Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP) have voiced, openly or implicitly, their support for a delay of the scheduled Feb. 14, 2024, legislative and presidential election or even to extend Jokowi’s term for another five years. It is clear the parties' lack of self-confidence in facing the next election and that they intend to please the President and millions of his die-hard supporters.

So far only the PDI-P has sternly opposed an election delay, although its intention to nominate House Speaker Puan Maharani in the election has received little sympathy even from the party’s supporters. There is almost no chance for the daughter of PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri to contest the next election.

Golkar chairman Airlangga Hartarto, who himself has openly expressed his ambition to become the next president, said he would convey the aspiration for Jokowi to rule Indonesia for another five-year term. The economic affairs coordinating minister praised the achievements of the President.

The Great Indonesia Party (Gerindra) is scheduled to announce the party’s third attempt to make the party boss and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto the country’s president. I still cannot imagine what Prabowo would tell the public to prove he would be much better than his former rival for two consecutive elections.

In social media, the refrain of the “Gak Mau Ganti Presiden” (I don’t want to change the President) song has suddenly gained traction again among Jokowi’s supporters. The song was composed by Charlie Willie Hutasoit and was popular during the 2019 presidential election campaign.

Aku gak mau ganti, gak mau ganti (I don’t want to change)

Gak mau ganti presiden (don’t want to change the president)

Kami mau dia lagi, mau dia lagi (we want him again, want him again)

Mau dia yang jadi presiden (want him to become the president again).

But the nation should learn from history. We were partly guilty of letting first and second presidents Sukarno and Soeharto rule the country as long as they wished. Enough is enough. We should not betray the democracy that we have embraced since 1999.

But for Jokowi, whatever happens, he will likely be Indonesia’s most powerful man in 2024 and beyond. Only when he commits a grave mistake will he lose his seat as the “king” of Indonesia, the king of Indonesian politics at best.

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The writer is senior editor at The Jakarta Post.