His guest list included Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto, Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto, NasDem Party chairman Surya Paloh, National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin Iskandar, United Development Party (PPP) chairman Suharso Monoarfa and National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Zulkifli Hasan.

They ended their lunch meeting by walking slowly, side by side toward the site of the inauguration ceremony for new Cabinet members – a show of unity and concord that the palace press bureau made sure to capitalize on.

Zulkifli, it was later revealed, had been made the latest member of the Cabinet, having been appointed trade minister. His party was one of the last of the ruling coalition to get a seat at Jokowi’s table after it joined the ranks last year.

But analysts say the meeting of the interparty elite was even more surprising than the results of the reshuffle.

Rumors have been swirling that the political bigwigs arrived at a consensus during their luncheon on a common approach to the upcoming elections.

Two sources from within the ruling coalition said Jokowi and the party leaders had agreed to exclusively endorse candidates from within the group for the presidency. They would reject other candidates as well, the sources said.

“It was just a reiteration of an agreement made by the coalition parties 15 days ago,” one of the sources told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

The insider said the deal aimed to prevent political parties from losing their relevance in the electoral race, which some party leaders felt had occurred in recent years.

“If one has money and wants to join the race, one must go through political parties,” the source said.

Other sources from within the coalition, when asked for confirmation, remained mum for the most part.

“I don’t know,” said PKB deputy chairman Jazilul Fawaid.

Many observers expect the next election to be a three-horse race, based on recent public opinion polling. The frontrunners across several polls include Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Defense Minister and Gerindra patron Prabowo Subianto and outgoing Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.

Ganjar’s popularity makes him a strong option for the PDI-P, but he must contend with the party chairwoman’s daughter, Puan Maharani, who has recorded uniquely low electability ratings over several surveys.

Meanwhile, Prabowo has the internal support to run for a third consecutive time in 2024 but would need support from coalition partners to mount a viable candidacy.

Anies is considered the wildcard of the group, having no direct affiliation with any political party, while at the same time commanding wide grassroots support.

But the decision only to back candidates from within the ruling coalition could change the outlook of the election.

Analysts believe the main purpose of Wednesday’s events was to keep members of Jokowi’s big-tent coalition working together while also installing more loyalists in his Cabinet.

Through such moves, the President is likely seeking to increase the chances that his own ambitious legacy projects will be seen through after he steps down.

Hanta Yuda, executive director for the Poltracking pollster, said that while the reshuffle was seen as a response to the dip in Jokowi’s approval ratings in May, it also served as a way for him to consolidate power within the coalition.

“It at least secures his path to becoming a ‘kingmaker’ as the 2024 polls approach,” Hanta told the Post.

Meanwhile, members of the ruling coalition are already taking steps ahead of election campaign season.

NasDem is currently holding a national coordination meeting in Jakarta that is expected to announce the party’s potential presidential candidates on Friday.

Kompas.com reported that 32 of NasDem’s 34 regional executive boards backed Anies for the party’s nomination, but NasDem secretary-general and Cabinet minister Johnny G. Plate insisted that the final decision would not be made through voting.

“It is important to note that the steering committee’s decision-making is not based on voting, but [...] consultations,” Johnny said on Thursday.

Speaking separately after the reshuffle announcement, PPP secretary general Arsul Sani said the addition of Zulkifli to the Cabinet would strengthen the position of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), which groups together the PPP, Golkar and PAN for the upcoming elections.

“The reshuffle, for us in the KIB, will strengthen [our] position, because there are now three party leaders from the KIB in the cabinet. This means [we’ll] have the access to [help solve] problems plaguing the government,” he said at the House of Representatives complex on Wednesday.

Ahmad Khoirul Umam, executive director of the Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs, observed that Wednesday’s Cabinet shake-up appeared not to be the event Jokowi wanted to emphasize to the public. Instead, he sought to highlight the meeting of the party leaders.

“The palace would like to show that there are no factions or fractures within the ruling coalition in the Indonesia Onward Cabinet,” Umam said.

He added that the reshuffle had managed to appease a number of parties, including the PKB and NasDem, which had been worried that their ministerial positions would be reduced.

The fact that parties were able to retain their respective positions within the government, Umam said, indicated that Jokowi was unprepared to openly upset his partners, particularly as his influence was entering a “decaying period” before the end of his term.

Jokowi’s last Cabinet shake-up occurred in April of last year, when he expanded a number of ministries’ realms of responsibility. Prior to that, Jokowi had swapped out members of his Cabinet in December 2020, with the introduction of six ministers and five deputy ministers. In his first presidential term, Jokowi carried out a total of four Cabinet shake-ups.