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ASEAN rises to challenge of geopolitical turmoil
The last day of the ASEAN ministerial meetings saw the usually noninterventionist bloc take a novel approach to resolving the Myanmar crisis, though soaring US-China tensions overshadowed the concurrently held East Asia Summit.
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he final day of the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting (AMM), which ran from Aug. 2 to 5, saw the bloc making bold, breakthrough decisions amid the highly volatile geopolitical developments in the region.
This was evident in the joint communiqué, issued on Friday, which contained calibrated warnings against Myanmar.
Previously, internal disagreements over ASEAN’s handling of the Myanmar coup crisis resulted in tense discussions and had heightened anticipation over its mention in the communiqué, which was promised. In its opening remarks on Wednesday, ASEAN chair Cambodia said the bloc would have to “rethink” its peace plans, or else be held “hostage” to the junta-led state’s defiance.
Observers have noted that the choice of words in the communiqué to address Myanmar’s military junta is a way of delegitimizing its leadership.
For example, the document’s 117th paragraph expresses “deep disappointment by the limited progress in and lack of commitment of the Nay Piy Taw authorities to [the] timely and complete implementation of the Five-Point Consensus”.
The ASEAN foreign ministers also state: “Consistent with Article 20 of the ASEAN Charter, we recommended that the ASEAN Summit assess the progress towards the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus by the State Administration Council to guide the decision on the next steps.”
Article 20 refers to a decree that grants leaders of ASEAN states to decide for themselves what necessary actions they should take in cases where the bloc fails to reach a consensus.
The joint communiqué of the 55th AMM is the first of its kind to be issued without the consensus of all 10 member states, paving the way for a similar move at the November summit.
Dewi Fortuna Anwar, senior researcher and director at The Habibie Center, said that ASEAN had “taken the right steps” through the communiqué, noting that it was a “firm warning to Myanmar that it should comply with the bloc’s decisions”.
“This is a breakthrough for ASEAN, which has so far taken political decisions through consensus. It is a breakthrough that it will not let itself be held hostage by Myanmar,” Dewi told The Jakarta Post on Friday.
“Myanmar, as a stumbling block to regional interests, has to be isolated going forward. ASEAN must have courage.”
Cambodia, in its capacity as the ASEAN chair at this difficult time, Dewi continued, rightly deserved credit for successfully issuing the communiqué and “keeping its responsibilities” in addressing both the Myanmar and South China Sea issues.
“The last ASEAN meeting in Phnom Penh, which was in 2012, was a disaster. It was the first time the bloc failed to issue a joint communiqué due to Cambodia’s refusal to negotiate,” she said.
“Now, we have to give credit to their leadership and their display of boldness toward China. It is apparent that ASEAN has solidified for the better.”
Fight and flight
While the Southeast Asian bloc has made progress toward the group’s unity, the tension between the United States and China, two of its most important allies, continued to escalate on the last day of the AMM to spill over into the East Asia Summit (EAS).
According to regional sources with knowledge of the event, the EAS saw heated debate and walkouts, with the meeting overshadowed by China’s fury, provoked by the Taiwan visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi earlier this week.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday that Beijing would “resolutely counter [Washington’s] manic, irresponsible and irrational deeds”. The Chinese foreign ministry announced on Friday that it had canceled some key climate talks with the US while it carried out a massive military drill near Taiwan, AFP reported.
China’s strong response came in spite of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s insistence that the US had not changed its One China policy stance, which prioritizes the recognition of China over Taiwan and is honored by many countries.
At a press briefing on Friday, Blinken told reporters, “China has chosen to overreact and use Pelosi’s visit as a pretext to increase provocative military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait,” adding that the US would remain unprovoked.
“We do not support Taiwan independence. We expect cross-strait differences to be resolved peacefully, not coercively or by force,” he stressed.
During the heated EAS on Friday, Foreign Minister Retno L.P. Marsudi emphasized the “wisdom and responsibility” of all world leaders in navigating the chaotic global landscape in which “war has become part of the reality”.
Respecting international law and the United Nations Charter was paramount, she underlined.
“When the sea is dark and guideless, the [UN Charter] as well as international law should ideally be our lighthouse,” the minister said, as quoted in a statement issued after the EAS.
Dewi said that ASEAN, as an “important forum for inclusivity and cooperation” through its joint communiqué and statements on the South China Sea, had done adequately to champion the common interest and regional stability.
“I think the ASEAN statements were very calibrated and encouraged all countries to be wise and refrain from provocative actions, without specifically naming anyone,” she said.
“These past few years have [forced us to] learn our lessons. Open conflict comes easily, but is incredibly hard to get out of. Nobody wants to see the Indo-Pacific turn into a war zone.”
