The country's fifth-largest political party originally planned the announcement for November, but analysts say the maneuver is designed to give the party a boost for the 2024 legislative election instead.

Chairman Surya Paloh, together with several NasDem politicians and Anies himself, made the announcement at the NasDem headquarters in Jakarta. Positioning the party as the moderate choice, Surya affirmed the party’s commitment to nationalism and inclusivity.

”The future of this nation requires our cooperation, synergy and us working hand-in-hand no matter what our race, religion or backgrounds,” Surya said. The party, he added, appreciated any potential candidates no matter what political party or group they belonged to as long as they were willing and capable of leading the country, leading them to land on Anies, who has consistently ranked among the three most electable potential candidates in many opinion polls.

As one of the early supporters of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, Surya noted that the current administration leaves several legacies that are worth continuing while others are in need of improvements, a claim echoed by Anies. “There’s continuity, and there’s also change. [...] chairman Surya entrusted me with this and insya’Allah [God Willing], it’s a belief we’ll continue to abide by,” Anies said.

Last week, Willy Aditya, head of NasDem’s central board, revealed that the party planned to have a candidate and coalition partner ready by November. Having only 10 percent of the seats at the House of Representatives, the NasDems must forge a coalition with other parties to reach the 20 percent threshold to be eligible to field a candidate, as required by law.

Banking on Anies

Bawono Kumoro of pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia saw this early announcement of Anies as a bit of a gamble. “By announcing this early, the party hopes to achieve an electoral effect. [...] Later on when Anies runs for the presidency, the hope is that the public remembers that the NasDems were the first to back the Jakarta governor,” Bawono said.

By being the first to back Anies, he added, the NasDems were also aiming to be leaders of their own coalition and to consolidate support from other parties who are also considering Anies, namely the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party.

Just like the NasDems, the two parties have no strong members to match the front-runners in most opinion polls.

As part of the current ruling coalition, the NasDems generally follow the lead of the Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which President Jokowi is a member. With the PDI-P currently holding the most seats in the House at 20 percent, Bawono surmised that the NasDems aimed to raise their own electoral standing by breaking free of the PDI-P, which seems intent on fielding its own nominee.

Political analyst Firman Noor of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) concurred, saying the declaration served as a statement of intent to both the public and other political parties. “I see this nomination as a signal to the public that the NasDems are the party with enough courage to nominate Anies, so it’s only natural for the NasDems to be considered later on.”

Additionally, Firman said that the NasDems wanted to warn other parties of its chairman Surya’s track record. “Surya is a senior politician and a shrewd businessman, capable of reading the public and knowing where the wind blows [...] Once he’s made a decision, everyone should take notice.”

Both Bawono and Firman cited the case of West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil as an example. In 2017, the NasDems were one of the first political parties to back the then-Bandung mayor as a candidate for the 2018 West Java gubernatorial election, which he then won.

As with Ridwan, Anies is considered a political outsider as he is currently not affiliated with any political parties. Crucially, both figures at the time of their respective elections enjoyed considerable public support, which Firman noted was important to the NasDems as the party takes public surveys seriously.

A recent Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) survey shows Anies having an electability rating of 27.5 percent among young voters, just behind Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo of the PDI-P with one-third of the vote and ahead of Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto of the Gerindra Party with 25.7 percent.

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