As head of the Surabaya chapter of the Indonesian Muslim Students Movement (PMII) in her youth, Khofifah’s political career stretches back to the New Order era as a member of the House of Representatives in 1992 with the National Development Party (PPP), and with the National Awakening Party (PKB) during the post-1998 Reform era.

Aside from serving as a House lawmaker, she also has years of experience in government, first as women’s empowerment minister during the short-lived presidency of the late Abdurrahman “Gus Dur” Wahid in 1999-2001, and more recently as social affairs minister during President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s first term in 2014-2018.

Khofifah eventually resigned from her ministry position in order to run in the 2019 East Java gubernatorial elections, which she eventually won. As one of the few women whose name regularly appear in presidential surveys and discussions, political analyst Bawono Kumoro of Indikator Politik sees Khofifah as a vice presidential candidate worthy of consideration.

“Since Jokowi’s rise in 2014, we’re seeing a trend where successful regional heads are dominating presidential discussions, which Khofifah is also benefiting from,” said Bawono. “Aside from being a female representative, Khofifa also has cultural ties to the [NU] that cannot be overlooked.”

Since 2000, Khofifah has served as chairwoman of Muslimat NU, the women’s wing of the largest Islamic organization in Indonesia, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). All the above qualities, plus her experience leading the second most populous region in the country, certainly makes her an attractive candidate for the vice presidential seat.

Prabowo’s shoo-in

So far, Khofifah’s name has been floated around as a potential running mate to Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto and the NasDem Party-backed former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. “[Gen. Andika Perkasa] and Khofifah are two of the names on our list. But Anies has the final say,” NasDem deputy secretary-general Hermawi Taslim told Tempo in October.

Given Prabowo’s history of lacking support in East Java, where he only managed to win 34 percent of the votes in the 2019 presidential election against Jokowi, political analyst Adi Prayitno of the Syarif Hidayatullah Islamic State University argues that Prabowo could certainly use Khofifah’s backing in the region.

“Prabowo is weak among the nahdliyin in East Java and Khofifah could certainly help bridge that gap,” said Adi, in reference to the nickname for NU members. The Islamic organization, which was founded in 1926 in Surabaya, the capital city of East Java, still carries a huge presence in the region to this day.

But even if Khofifah could theoretically help Prabowo shore up the NU votes in East Java, Adi noted that her path to candidacy was still difficult due to the ambitions of Muhaimin “Cak Imin” Iskandar. The PKB chairman and fellow NU stalwart, whose party is currently allied with Gerindra, has repeatedly declared his intention to run as Prabowo’s running mate for 2024.

“If I’m not going to [run as vice president], then what’s the point of being in a coalition,” said Muhaimin in September.

While surveys show that Khofifah’s electability rating is ahead of Muhaimin, the political analyst argued that it was still not enough to put her ahead of Muhaimin.

“Muhaimin leads a party with 10 percent seats in the House. [...] If Khofifah’s electability as a vice president could rival that of [West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil], then things might turn out differently,” explained Adi.

An Indikator Politik survey released in December put Khofifah fifth among other vice presidential candidates with 5.3 percent of the votes. West Java’s Ridwan leads the pack with 19.7 percent, while Muhaimin languishes near the bottom with a meager rating of 0.6 percent.

Reelection option

Even if Khofifah’s path to vice presidency is full of obstacles, the incumbent governor still has a good chance of being elected to a second term in East Java. In an Accurate Research and Consulting Indonesia (ARCI) poll released in November on the 2024 East Java gubernatorial elections, Khofifah still holds a dominant lead with 37.5 percent of the votes.

Her closest challenger is incumbent deputy governor Emil Dardak with a 12.2 percent rating, ahead of social affairs minister and former Surabaya mayor Tri Rismaharini with 5.1 percent.

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