A survey from the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) released on Sunday showed that Ganjar is still the man to beat in the 2024 presidential race, with 36.3 percent of respondents saying they would vote for the PDI-P politician if the election were held today, followed by Anies with 24.2 percent and Prabowo with 23.2 percent. Ganjar’s electability rating rose by at least 5 percent from the 31.7 percent in the previous LSI survey, widening his lead against Anies, who closely trailed him at 28.2 percent.

“In a three-horse race simulation, Ganjar is leading by about 10 percent over his rivals, which is Anies with 24.2 percent, followed by Prabowo,” LSI executive director Djajadi Hanan told an online press conference on Sunday. “Prabowo and Anies are racing against each other or in the same or competitive positions in January 2023.”     

Ganjar’s growing popularity has sparked speculation about his potential nomination by his own party, the decision on which rests in the hands of party matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri, and other parties, including the Golkar Party-led Indonesia United Coalition (KIB), widely seen as President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo loyalists.

August 2022 poll vs. January 2023 poll. (Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI)/JP/Ina Parlina/Swi Handono)

‘Rational’ choice

As Puan Maharani, Ganjar’s only competitor for nomination within the PDI-P, has still failed to even get a solid 1 percent of the vote in the LSI survey, questions have been raised as to whether the party is willing to risk it all by going it alone with Puan in 2024.

“Democracy needs strong figures, who are widely recognized, liked and supported by the people as voters. The greater the support, the greater their significance for political parties,” said political analyst Sirodjudin Abbas of the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC). “I think the PDI-P will be rational. It is highly unlikely that the PDI-P will ignore a party member who has huge popular support,” he added.

A recent SMRC survey found that nominating Ganjar could provide a significant boost for the PDI-P in the legislative elections. The survey, released on Friday, found that only 20 percent of respondents would vote for the PDI-P in the legislative elections, that number rose to 36 percent if the PDI-P were to nominate Ganjar.

Indonesia Political Review executive director Ujang Komarudin shared a similar sentiment, saying that Ganjar’s rising popularity may force Megawati, who is reportedly leaning toward nominating her daughter Puan, to rethink her available options. And this, he said, may reflect the success of the pro-Ganjar volunteers. 

“Their strategy is simply to boost [Ganjar’s] electability so that the PDI-P has no other option, just like in 2014 with [President Jokowi]”, said Ujang.

In the run up to the 2014 presidential elections, Puan’s name was also mentioned as a possible candidate, before Megawati chose to give the mandate to Jokowi due to Puan’s low electability rating, which might again prove to be her downfall in 2024.

Political hurdles

Party politics, especially his rivalry and troubled relationship with Puan, remains the biggest stumbling block for Ganjar’s presidential bid. While President Jokowi has already signaled his preference for Ganjar as his successor, the Central Java governor has yet to receive an official nomination from political parties except from the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), a minnow party with no seats in the legislative body.

Support for Ganjar, however, has reportedly been growing even within his own party, with Guntur Soekarnoputra, Megawati’s brother and a PDI-P executive, publicly declaring his support for Ganjar last week. Puan has downplayed his endorsement, saying that the party’s decision lies solely with Megawati as party chairman.

As rumors of the rivalry between the two PDI-P politicians intensified, signs of a potential warming relationship between Ganjar and Puan have begun to show, with the two accompanying President Jokowi at an event commemorating Nahdlatul Ulama’s (NU) centenary on Monday in Surakarta. In December, Ganjar also personally welcomed Puan when her plane landed in that city for the nuptials of Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep.

Political analyst Adi Prayitno said that despite the two often being portrayed as rivals, Ganjar and Puan have a friendly relationship beneath the surface. “It’s undeniable that they’re often pitted against each other regarding the presidential ticket, but generally, they both respect each other”, he said.

But Ganjar’s electoral appeal could prove to be moot if rumors of NasDem rescinding its support for Anies, the opposition’s figurehead, prove to be true, analysts said.  

With Anies out of the picture, the PDI-P might feel it has no reason to nominate Ganjar, the party’s only presidential hopeful who can compete against him in electability, paving the way for the deeply unpopular Puan.

Signs of NasDem’s wavering support came about as party chairman Surya Paloh instructed his rank and file to remain loyal to the government’s agenda this week, following reports that he recently spoke with a close ally of President Jokowi in a meeting overseas amid a perceived falling out between the two leaders. (ahw)