Surya, along with his entourage of NasDem executives, paid an afternoon visit to Golkar Party leader Airlangga Hartarto on Wednesday, an auspicious day in the Javanese calendar, a week after NasDem party elites met with the Gerindra Party-National Awakening Party (PKB) alliance at their new joint secretariat in Jakarta.

Prior to meeting Airlangga, Surya met President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo amid speculation that the two figures had been at odds since NasDem announced its support for former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan to run for president in 2024.

Jokowi’s absence from NasDem’s recent anniversary celebration and Surya’s absence from the wedding of the President’s youngest son Kaesang Pangarep have stoked speculation of an impending Cabinet reshuffle targeting NasDem appointees.

Jokowi hosted two limited Cabinet meetings on Tuesday, one of which excluded Agriculture Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo and the other excluded Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar, both NasDem politicians. This added to whispers that the two ministers were facing dismissal.

However, the next day, Pon Wednesday, came and went without much fanfare. The day is an auspicious one in the Javanese calendar, which Jokowi has appeared to use to determine when he will announce new policies or make major changes.

Some analysts believed the day’s uneventfulness was a good sign for NasDem’s Surya, while others suggested the President was holding on to the possible reshuffle as a trump card in case Surya’s party broke away from the ruling coalition.

Speaking at a press conference after Wednesday’s meeting, Golkar’s Airlangga said his party and NasDem had agreed that the government coalition must “remain solid”, even as the country entered a campaign year.

“This is an opportunity that we should not let go. The government has gained the world's trust after [hosting] the G20 Summit. Thus political stability certainly is important because the government still has tasks that require cooperation with the legislature and political parties,” Airlangga said.

Surya dismissed speculation that Jokowi had instructed him to visit his counterpart in Golkar for the sake of coalition harmony and stressed that NasDem and Golkar had agreed to “prioritize a conducive atmosphere”.

Surya reiterated his party’s support for the Jokowi administration, saying NasDem was “still happy [in the coalition] and inseparable from the ups and downs of the administration under Jokowi and Vice President Mar’uf Amin”.

“[Our] support for [Jokowi’s] leadership is not mere rhetoric or a momentary interest for NasDem. There is sincerity,” Surya said.

Surya’s visit to Golkar came a day after Anies announced that he had secured support from all three political parties in the NasDem-led Coalition for Change, which together control enough seats in the House of Representatives to nominate a candidate for the presidency. Anies’ announcement came after the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), accompanied by the Democratic Party and Anies’ spokesperson, declared on Monday that it would support Anies’ bid in 2024. Both parties are part of the Coalition for Change and are in opposition to the Jokowi administration. NasDem elites were notably absent from the announcement event.

Analyst Agung Baskoro said this absence, alongside Surya’s visit to Golkar, showed that “NasDem may have been considering forging a new political deal” with other members of the government coalition, such as forming a Gerindra-led or Golkar-led alliance.

This was supported by NasDem’s recent “zig-zag maneuvers” of playing both sides amid the threat of a Cabinet shake-up, Agung added.

“At the same time, NasDem cozying up with Golkar could potentially break the political impasse” within the NasDem-led alliance, Agung added, putting pressure on the Democratic Party and PKS to set aside their differences over who would serve as Anies’ running mate.

NasDem needed to pull off a sophisticated balancing act between parties loyal to Jokowi and the opposition camp, as the Democrats and PKS could start to lose hope for the electoral alliance watching NasDem's maneuvers, Agung said.