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Prolonged silence on nominee may hinder PDI-P in 2024 polls

PAN politician welcomes idea of ruling party joining KIB.

Yerica Lai (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Thu, March 2, 2023 Published on Mar. 2, 2023 Published on 2023-03-02T07:53:33+07:00

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T

he Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle’s (PDI-P) intention of forging a political alliance with other parties to back one of its own members in the 2024 presidential race, may change the current coalition map, but keeping quiet for too long about its nominee might risk the party losing relevance.

Despite having the golden ticket to field a presidential candidate on its own, the PDI-P, of which President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is a member, has hinted on a possible partnership with other pro-government parties that have yet to name their candidates.

A political alliance with the country's biggest party however would come with certain caveats, PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto said, including a precondition that the presidential candidate must come from within the PDI-P's ranks.

More talks would be held with potential coalition partners, Hasto added, suggesting that the party would consider offering options for power-sharing, such as certain positions in the Cabinet, should the potential alliance win the presidential race.

“There are many configurations of power, one of which could also be ministerial [positions],” Hasto said.

PDI-P matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri resisted pressure to name the party’s nomination in her speech during the party’s 50th anniversary in January, stressing that as chairwoman, it was her prerogative to determine the party's presidential candidate and to stick to her own timetable.

Many analysts believe that Megawati has been struggling between naming her daughter and House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani, who repeatedly scores low in public opinion surveys, and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who tops all prospective candidates in surveys.

Sirojuddin Abbas of pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) said that Ganjar’s candidacy would likely change the coalition map as the popular governor could “not only boost support for his party the PDI-P, but also other parties.”

An SMRC survey in December found that Ganjar’s candidacy would boost the PDI-P’s electability rating by 16 percent, compared with a 7 percent rise if the party nominated Puan.

The same survey found that Ganjar’s candidacy would increase Golkar Party's electability rating by 12 percent, twice the 6 percent effect of party chairman Airlangga Hartarto being on ticket on the party’s chances, while chipping away other parties, such as the Gerindra Party by 2 percent.

“Golkar will weigh carefully which presidential candidate has the greater chance of bringing Golkar an important part of the winning block. This would be the bottom line,” Sirojuddin told The Jakarta Post.

Golkar, the country’s second-largest party, has formed the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) together with two smaller parties, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP). The alliance however has no strong name to match the frontrunners in most public opinion polls.

PAN politician Viva Yoga Mauladi has welcomed the idea of the PDI-P joining the KIB, saying that the alliance would enjoy “an expansion of its support base” and “a bigger chance of winning”.

Puan, the heir apparent of the PDI-P, meanwhile, is planning to continue a tour of other parties this month, with talks with PPP and PAN leaders among the priorities on her agenda, according to senior PDI-P senior Said Abdullah.

The PDI-P will likely face more challenges in forging an alliance with Gerindra, whose chairman Prabowo Subianto is setting his eyes on the presidential post and which is currently already looking for a running mate who can represent voters from Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), analyst Agung Baskoro of Trias Politika Strategis said.

“The possibility of pairing Ganjar and Prabowo remains open only if king and queen makers such as Jokowi and Megawati are able to bridge differences between the PDI-P and Gerindra,” Agung said.

On the other hand, the biggest party in the ruling coalition might choose to go at it alone if Megawati nominated Puan with Ganjar as her running mate, especially because Puan’s nomination would reduce the party's bargaining power with any potential coalition partners, Agung added.

Whether the PDI-P nominates Ganjar or Puan, however, Megawati’s silence on the party’s nomination could be “damaging” to the party because it and its candidate pair would have less time to prepare for the 2024 election than other prospective candidates.

“The longer Megawati keeps mum about who the candidate will be, the more likely the eventual announcement could turn into an anticlimactic reveal as the dramatization has been left too long,” Agung added, especially when faced with younger voters, who place certainty and competence over gimmicks.

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