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ASEAN at crossroads as leaders convene
Bloc in dire need of ‘rejuvenation’, analysts say, as pressure to reform mounts.
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outheast Asian leaders descended on the eastern Indonesia fishing town of Labuan Bajo on Tuesday for a crucial summit that aims to address ASEAN’s institutional shortcomings and chart the direction of progress for one of the world’s fastest-growing regions in the coming decades.
The association has been under increasing pressure to reform in the midst of great power rivalries and even greater expectations as the economic driver of the “Asian Century”, at a time when most of the world is slowly recovering from a pandemic and a global downturn.
ASEAN unity has also been put to the test after attempts to resolve a violent coup crisis in Myanmar came up short, potentially setting the tone for the next couple of years of government change in a politically diverse region.
A pall hangs heavy over the weeklong flurry of meetings meant to discuss the region’s most pressing issues, following an attack on a diplomatic convoy delivering humanitarian assistance in Myanmar on the weekend.
Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Mahfud MD even said ASEAN was “at a crossroads” as it continued to juggle external and internal pressures.
Mahfud, who led the 26th ASEAN Political and Security Council (APSC) on Tuesday, said ASEAN’s “strength as a community” was tested by “crisis after crisis”, and the group was in jeopardy of losing its relevance.
“From the outside, there is great power competition with the potential to divide our group. [...] From the inside, we have the prolonged crisis in Myanmar and its humanitarian implications,” he remarked at the outset of the meeting.
Tough talks ahead
In opening the 33rd ASEAN Coordinating Council (ACC) meeting as chair, Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi said building a “stronger” and “more relevant” ASEAN should be the top priority for all the delegates this week.
"The role of ASEAN is instrumental for peace, stability and prosperity of the region. [...] For sure, the future challenges that ASEAN will face will be bigger, including in the Indo-Pacific,” she asserted.
Often criticized for being overly bureaucratic, the bloc is currently drafting its next development roadmap, dubbed the Post-2025 Vision, which charts the direction of future cooperation and development for the next 20 years.
Ahead of the ACC meeting, Retno said the group would also discuss progress on its Myanmar peace initiative, the Five-Point Consensus (5PC), as well as the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP).
The 5PC is an agreement birthed two years ago in the aftermath of the military putsch in Myanmar. It calls for the cessation of violence, the appointment and engagement of a special envoy and the delivery of humanitarian relief, points that a defiant junta regime has been ignoring.
The AOIP, on the other hand, is a document seeking to establish ASEAN’s central role in the wider Asia-Pacific region amid the United States-China rivalry. It mostly encourages cooperation rather than competition.
Recent months have seen major military activity across Asia-Pacific waters, with observers noting lines were being drawn by the US and its allies and challenged by the likes of China, North Korea and Russia.
Within ASEAN, some member countries such as the Philippines have also established foreign military bases despite the association’s pledge to remain neutral.
“This is why the implementation of AOIP becomes more important right now. We need to work harder, not business as usual,” Retno affirmed in her opening speech.
Mahfud, meanwhile, insisted the bloc must not lose sight of other challenges in the region. He urged the group to “remain adaptive and responsive” to some critical regional security matters, including terrorism, drugs, money laundering and trafficking in persons (TIP).
“They not only present a threat to peace, stability and prosperity in the region, but also impede our community-building process. We have no other choice but to ensure ASEAN is well-equipped to address these challenges,” said the senior minister.
Reform-minded
Meanwhile, anticipation grew among regional experts who insisted ASEAN was in dire need of “rejuvenation”.
Analysts have noted there was no strengthening ASEAN without revamping its oft-criticized consensus-based decision-making process, but they are holding out hope the region’s leaders would resolve to rejuvenate the many ASEAN processes, institutions and forums.
Meanwhile, Sunday’s attack on diplomats and officials from ASEAN’s humanitarian agency AHA Centre should see Indonesia and Singapore put on a stronger front to drive discussions on Myanmar, they said, though any talks could risk becoming a non-starter without enforcement.
“We will see how seriously the group takes the attack and whether they see it as a serious assault against ASEAN initiatives,” said Lina Alexandra, the foreign policy lead at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“It is no longer enough to be tough; a clear strategy needs to be put out,” she told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a senior analyst at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), said a lot was at stake if ASEAN failed to clearly address the matter, noting it could also affect other important work.
“At the moment, ASEAN does not have any enforcement mechanisms. [...] This is not simply a technocratic or administrative question. It is an existential issue,” Dewi told the Post on Tuesday.
The summit is scheduled to conclude on Thursday, with a number of outcome documents expected, including a leaders’ statement on strengthening ASEAN institutions.
