Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand are expected to join the ranks of Asian nations with a gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding US$1 trillion by 2030, according to a study by US-based global information company IHS Inc.
“This will help to increase the geopolitical and economic importance of ASEAN and economic grouping in international diplomacy and the global dialogue on trade, investment and international standards-setting,” said IHS chief economist for Asia-Pacific Rajiv Biswas.
In a statement on Thursday, IHS said South-East Asia was expected to be one of the world’s fastest growing regions with these four ASEAN nations.
Referring to Malaysia as Asia’s next advanced economy, the IHS report said Malaysia was forecast to achieve a per capita GDP of $20,000 by 2025, with total GDP exceeding $1 trillion by 2030.
Biswas pointed out that the structure of Malaysia's economy would continue to shift towards higher value-added manufacturing and services.
“Strategic growth industries in the services sector will include financial services, healthcare, education, commercial aviation, tourism and the IT-business process outsourcing industry, as Malaysia becomes an increasingly important services, services-exporting economy for South-East Asia,” said Biswas.
Indonesia’s GDP is forecast to grow at 5% a year over 2016-2020, supported by strong growth in consumer demand and infrastructure investment, he added.
“By 2020, Indonesia will have already become a nation with a GDP size exceeding $1 trillion, and by 2030, Indonesian GDP is projected to exceed US$3.7 trillion,” said Biswas, adding that Indonesia is South-East Asia’s largest economy and one of the world’s largest emerging markets.
The Philippines, he said, had shown rapid GDP growth averaging at around 6% per year over 2011-2015, with GDP growth of 5.8% per year forecast over 2016-2018.
“The total size of the Philippines’ economy is projected to grow from $300 billion in 2016 to $700 billion by 2025, and a $1 trillion economy by 2030,” Biswas added.
Meanwhile, the ASEAN frontier markets of Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are forecast to continue to grow rapidly.
The IHS study showed that Vietnam would grow at a pace of around 6.5% per year over the medium term, with rapid growth in manufacturing exports of electronics and garments driving industrial development.
“The new EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement and the planned TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership] deal will significantly boost Vietnam’s market access to the EU and the US for its manufacturing exports by reducing tariff barriers substantially,” he added. — Bernama