Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and his ambition to multilaterally contain China will be on top of President Joe Biden’s agenda as the host. ASEAN leaders will do their best to please Washington but at the same time, they do not want to irritate Beijing, their most important trading partner.

President Jokowi has an additional mission in Washington, DC. Hosting the G20 summit in Bali in November will cap his diplomatic achievement since he came to power in 2014. But the Russian invasion can be devastating to the prospects of the summit because Biden and the US allies such as Canada, Britain and Australia have threatened to boycott the Bali summit if Indonesia does not invite Ukraine. Initially, they demanded the absence of Putin.

Jokowi needs to persuade Biden to allow the warring sides to find a win-win solution before the summit begins.

ASEAN members are economically more dependent on China than the US, although the latter remains one of the most important export destinations for ASEAN. Militarily, the regional grouping also needs the US' strong presence in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in the South China Sea, where China claims sovereignty over almost the entire maritime area.

The summit was originally planned for March 28-29, which coincided with the 45^th anniversary of relations between the two partners. The event was rescheduled because some ASEAN leaders were not available on that date and the world was preoccupied with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The postponement itself was a clear indication that ASEAN is now less dependent on Washington than it was a few decades ago.

“It is a top priority for the Biden-Harris administration to serve as a strong, reliable partner in Southeast Asia. Our shared aspirations for the region will continue to underpin our common commitment to advancing an Indo-Pacific that is free and open, secure, connected and resilient,” press secretary Jen Psaki said on Saturday.

Biden will push his guests to condemn or repeat their condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine. But the real priority will be the China issue. The ASEAN leaders surely do not want to be perceived as American allies amid the US-China rivalry. Economically, China is vital, not just for ASEAN but for nearly the whole world. The US remains the world’s largest economy, but its domination has been taken over by China.

ASEAN-China relations, however, have been haunted by Beijing’s rising assertiveness in the South China Sea. The high seas are also partly claimed by ASEAN members – Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei. Indonesia is not embroiled in a territorial dispute with China, but the Asian giant has included the Natuna waters in its centuries-old map as its traditional fishing ground.

The Washington summit will be beneficial for both ASEAN and the US. For Jokowi in particular, his success in keeping Biden’s patience on the matter of the Ukrainian war and persuading him to attend the Bali G20 Summit will be crucial.

China, for sure, will closely follow the summit.