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Backgrounder: Jakarta's election, toward the run-off
With less than a week left until the second round of Jakarta’s elections, tensions are simmering, while the political winds begin to blow in many different directions.
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With less than a week left until the second round of Jakarta’s elections, tensions are simmering, while the political winds begin to blow in many different directions. (JP/Budhi Button)
W
ith less than a week left until the second round of Jakarta’s elections, tensions are simmering, while the political winds begin to blow in many different directions. In the immediate aftermath of the first round of voting, held on the Feb. 15, the common wisdom was that the majority of Agus-Sylvi’s voters, 17 percent of the electorate, would switch their support to the runners-up, Anies-Sandi, who gained 40 percent of the vote.
Conversely, Ahok-Djarot, the front-runners after the first round of voting, with 43 percent of the vote, are viewed as the underdogs heading into the second, and final, run-off, on April 19.
The blasphemy trial of incumbent governor Ahok and the use of religious narratives have effectively undermined the incumbent’s electability in the eyes of many Jakartans. That being said, even as the second round of voting closes in, it is still too early to foresee the outcome.
Ahok’s electability plummeted late last year after the blasphemy trial began. This was compounded by large-scale demonstrations against him, which followed in November.
Prior to these events, the governor’s approval ratings had remained relatively consistent, at 60-70 percent. However, his electability, which was at around 50 percent in early 2016, fell nearly 30 percentage points, to only 20 percent, around mid-November.
Many attributed this downward spiral to negative religious sentiment against Ahok. However, his electability rose steadily in the month prior to the first round of voting, sending mixed signals about the political behavior of Jakartans.
Did sectarian issues (religious and ethnic) determine their political choices?
