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Steady dollar sends yen to the brink of 160
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A woman stands in front of an electric screen displaying the Nikkei share average and Japanese Yen exchange rate against the US dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo on April 26, 2024. (Reuters/Issei Kato)
T
he dollar was firm on Wednesday and trading on the precipice of the 160 yen barrier as investors turned cautious and counted down to the release of US price data at the end of the week.
A jump in Australian inflation to a six-month high sent the Aussie dollar up 0.3 percent to $0.6667 in otherwise subdued markets as traders started to price a 30 percent risk of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike as soon as August.
"The RBA's next board meeting on August 6th is now 'live,'" said Tony Sycamore at brokerage IG Markets.
A similar surprise in Canadian inflation had sent the Canadian dollar briefly spiking to a three-week high.
Elsewhere the euro was steady at $1.0714 in Asia and at 159.78 per dollar, the yen's level has markets on alert for intervention since that is only a whisker shy of where Japanese authorities likely stepped in to buy yen in April.
Markets are banking that Friday's US data shows annual growth in the Federal Reserve's favored core personal consumption expenditure index slowed to 2.6 percent in May, the lowest in more than three years and opening the way to rate cuts.
Policymakers, however, continue to signal they are in no rush, with Fed Governors Lisa Cook and particularly Michelle Bowman stressing that decisions will depend on data.
"Inflation in the US remains elevated, and I still see a number of upside inflation risks that affect my outlook," Bowman said.
The Australian dollar dipped 0.1 percent to $0.6640 and the New Zealand dollar similarly slipped to $0.6115, with small moves reflecting thin trade.
Citi said this week that its etraders found interbank FX volumes some 40 percent lower than thirty-day averages.
Sterling was steady at $1.268, while bitcoin has recovered somewhat from a dip below $60,000 this week to trade at $61,668.
Along with the yen, China's yuan is also getting squeezed by the dollar's stubborn strength. China has seemed to signal some tolerance for a cheaper currency by gradually weakening the midpoint of the yuan's daily trading range on the dollar.
The yuan has hugged the low side of its band for months and was last at 7.2884 per dollar in offshore trade.
"The yen moves more, and yuan moves are more controlled, but they seldom move in opposite directions," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes.
"If JPY does break through 160 in the coming days, preventing further yuan weakness would be very difficult indeed."
