Controlling only about 23 percent of the total seats in the House of Representatives, the opposition camp — PAN, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party (PD) — was never able to pull enough support to mount a challenge against Jokowi’s key policies. The Cabinet shake-up — potentially Jokowi’s last — will not tip the balance of power between government and non-government parties at the legislative body.

The President’s latest move, however, has constrained the opposition leaders in another way: It deprives them of the needed vote to pass the presidential threshold to contest the next election. The Constitution states that a party or a group of parties must have at least 20 percent of the House seats to nominate a president, while PKS and PD, with PAN in the ruling coalition, now only have 16 percent of seats combined.

The two remaining opposition parties are now left with no choice but to form an alliance with at least one member of the ruling coalition to contest the 2024 election, and the NasDem Party, at least for the time being, is their best bet. 

‘Third axis’

PKS and PD have approached the Gerindra Party and the NasDem Party — the third and fourth-largest parties in the ruling coalition – for potential cooperation in 2024. Of the two parties, the latter is the likely partner for the opposition, according to analysts.

On Thursday, Democratic Party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono held a closed-door meeting with NasDem chairman Surya Paloh to further discuss cooperation in the upcoming elections. It was their third meeting this year.