Political parties behind presumptive presidential election winner Prabowo Subianto appear to have distanced themselves from a potential race to capture the House of Representatives speakership from the largest party in the legislature, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
While quick counts indicate that Prabowo has won a comfortable lead over his two opponents, the focus has now shifted to whether parties backing him will wield power over the House to allow him to run an effective administration.
The PDI-P is leading in the preliminary tally with 16 percent of the vote, followed by rivals the Golkar Party with 15 percent and Prabowo’s own Gerindra Party with 13 percent, even though PDI-P presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo came third in the Feb. 14 race.
If having the most votes translates into having the largest share of seats in the legislature, the PDI-P will retain the speaker's position, as regulated in the prevailing law on legislative institutions, known as the MD3 Law. The PDI-P has also hinted at its intention to play an opposition role to a Prabowo-led government.
But nothing is set in stone until the official election results, including how the vote translates into the number of seats, are announced next week.
Speculation has been rife that major pro-Prabowo parties, particularly Golkar and Gerindra, are seeking to amend the law to give one of them a greater chance of securing the House speaker’s seat to ensure an effective government and increase their bargaining position in Prabowo’s post-election coalition.
“The position of House speaker is very strategic as it holds control over the House's agenda,” analyst Ujang Komarudin said, adding that whoever would be the next speaker would hinge on which parties ended up with the most seats and whether there would be changes to the MD3 Law.
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