The country only recently held its general elections in April. This year’s political event, which saw for the first time the presidential election held simultaneously along with the multitier legislative elections, has had an impact on the results of the elections, including the sustainability of the political parties contesting them. The Jakarta Post’s Fachrul Sidiq, Ghina Ghaliya Quddus and Imanuddin Razak have analyzed and presented the facts in today’s Special Report.

The road to Senayan — a subdistrict in South Jakarta commonly used by locals to refer to the national-level House of Representatives membership, whose headquarters is situated within the subdistrict — has always been a difficult and winding path as one needs a combination of excellent individual qualities, a strong social network, full support from a political party and last but not least, sufficient resources to finance every stage of the election, starting from the campaigning period to voting day.

Such a tough electoral process is expected as there are always surprises found in every edition of the five-yearly political event. Many incumbent legislators get reelected for another legislative term, but many — some of whom are popular faces and part of the country’s exclusive club of celebrities — also fail as they lose the race to new and younger candidates.

The fierce rivalry is also felt by the political parties contesting the elections. While it is common to see some parties securing more votes and subsequently getting more seats in the legislative councils, it is also no surprise to find that some lose votes, costing them seats at the House.

This year, the Hanura Party was completely eliminated from the House’s 2019-2024 term after it failed to pass the minimum 4 percent parliamentary threshold in the April 17 election. Hanura was part of the national legislature in the previous two terms.

There is no single explanation as to why some parties were able to progress, others had to regress and for the Hanura Party to get disqualified from the House for the next five-year term.

Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) researcher Sirajuddin Abbas pointed at Hanura’s prolonged internal bickering as the main reason for its failure to maintain its presence in the House.

“Its internal leadership dispute led to a power vacuum, which subsequently led to a lack of party control and coordination ahead of the 2019 elections,” Sirajuddin told the Post on Thursday.

Apart from the prolonged dispute, Hanura’s declining election results, according to Sirajuddin, could not be separated from the fact that former Hanura chairman Wiranto still had a strong influence over the party’s internal affairs as a number of key party figures quit soon after Oesman Sapta Odang stepped in to lead the party.

“These figures were known as Wiranto’s loyalists,” Sirajuddin said.

In reference to the declining achievement of the Islam-based United Development Party (PPP), Sirajuddin said the arrest of then-party chairman Muhammad Romahurmuziy after being implicated in a corruption case had indeed contributed to its poor election results.

“However, Romahurmuziy’s arrest was not the sole factor as PPP’s decision to join the coalition of Joko [‘Jokowi’] Widodo and Ma’ruf Amin had also damaged its grassroots support. Some PPP members and supporters apparently favored the rival Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno camp, which cost the PPP [votes],” he said.

NasDem Party chairman Surya Paloh attributed NasDem’s positive performance in the April 17 legislative election to “hard work”. NasDem, which was established in November 2011, secured about 9 percent of votes cast in this year’s election, a 3 percent increase from its achievement in the 2014 election.

“We are aware that in order to win a competition, we all must prepare ourselves wholeheartedly,” Surya told the Post at the party headquarters in a recent interview.

“We are also aware that we are not an election winner and are a relatively new political party, so we still need to work hard […] It is not yet the time for us to enjoy the comfort zone.”

Surya added that NasDem would not pursue seasonal, pragmatic results in an election, although they would be attainable and could greatly expand the party’s coffers.

“We do not deny the fact that there have been political transactions taking place at elections. You know what, you could get at least Rp 1 trillion [US$71.44 million] if your party is willing to take a ‘political dowry’ for the three different phases of regional elections. But we rejected [these offers] as we are building a political foundation that I call ‘idealism’,” he said.

Sirajuddin had a different opinion on NasDem’s success in pumping up its achievement in the last election. He saw the party’s election preparation strategy as key to its success.

“NasDem’s increased achievement in the April 17 legislative election cannot be separated from its brilliant strategy in recruiting a lot of [local] popular candidates,” the SMRC researcher told the Post on Thursday.

Public appearance: President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, accompanied by running mate Ma’ruf Amin, delivers a victory speech to residents of Johar Baru in Central Jakarta on May 21. The General Elections Commission had earlier declared Jokowi and Ma’ruf winners of the 2019 presidential election with 55.5 percent of the vote, while challengers Prabowo Subianto and running mate Sandiaga Uno secured 44.5 percent.(JP/Seto Wardhana)

Unlike NasDem, the Golkar Party remains confident about its nationwide election machinery and extensive experience in the country’s political arena.

Golkar was one of the three oldest political parties contesting this year’s elections. The other two were the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the PPP.

Golkar chairman Airlangga Hartarto said his party’s achievement in the April 17 legislative election effectively turned all damaging speculations upside down. He cited a survey held in 2018 that concluded that Golkar would only get 6 percent of the vote. It turned out that Golkar was able to secure 12.3 percent.

Airlangga, who is also industry minister in the current Cabinet, highlighted a key strategy in Golkar’s achievement.

“We set the priority for our election victory teams. We went full steam by allocating all the necessary resources at electoral regions that are traditionally our strongholds,” he said.

“We all also know that each province has a different parliamentary seat calculation scheme. We, therefore, focused on provinces or regions that would contribute more House seats to us than those that would provide fewer seats.”

The PDI-P, meanwhile, has yet a different strategy for maintaining its election achievement as the top performer in the last two editions of the legislative election in 2014 and in 2019, as well as its success in ensuring that its own candidate, Jokowi, would secure a reelection.

PDI-P deputy secretary-general Ahmad Basarah underlined chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri’s role as the central and unifying figure that contributed to the party’s solid preparations ahead of the 2019 elections.

“Ibu [Megawati] was the person behind our firm determination to consolidate party branches and cadres nationwide. We have a solid structure from the top at the DPP [central executive board] down to the lowest at the village levels,” Basarah told the Post on Friday.

“Party leaders at the DPP are even told to be ready 24 hours a day to monitor and take care of our party’s internal affairs. We are told to frequently visit our party branches and cadres nationwide as part of the consolidation measures.”

He conceded that Jokowi standing as a PDI-P member who is at country’s helm and represents the country’s center of gravity had contributed to the party’s steady position in the country’s political arena.

“Yes, Pak Jokowi has made a significant contribution to our election achievement. But we should not forget that it was the PDI-P that recruited and groomed him in politics. So, it’s like the PDI-P and Pak Jokowi complement each other,” Basarah said.

Sirajuddin, however, had a different opinion on Jokowi’s contribution to the PDI-P’s election victories.

“Initially, the coattail effect of Jokowi’s presidency and his PDI-P membership had a significant influence on the PDI-P’s approval rating. But three months before the [April 17] election, a series of [negative] issues launched at both Jokowi and the PDI-P proved that the Jokowi factor eventually had no effect on the PDI-P’s legislative election achievement,” Sirajuddin said. “It’s because the PDI-P was able to maintain a grip on its strongholds.”