Around 23 million people living in several of Indonesia’s coastal cities, including the capital Jakarta, risk having their homes inundated in coastal flooding by 2050 as a result of rising sea levels caused by climate change, a new report has warned.

Those forecast to find themselves in flood zones in the archipelago are among 300 million citizens facing the risk globally in the next three decades — three times as many people as previously predicted, according to the study.

A report by United States-based nonprofit research group Climate Central estimates that Indonesia, together with five other Asian countries, will be heavily impacted by the sea level rise, given the number of people living in each country’s low-lying coastal areas.

“Mainland China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand are home to the most people on land projected to be below average annual coastal flood levels by 2050,” the report says.

“Together, those six nations account for roughly 75 percent of the 300 million people on land facing the same vulnerability at mid-century.”

The new figures are based on CoastalDEM, a new digital elevation model developed by Climate Central, which used machine learning to correct systematic errors in the elevation dataset used in previous coastal flood risk assessments, NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM).

The new dataset used in the study is “more accurate” than the SRTM, which according to the research group, underestimates inundation as a result of rising sea levels in the coming decades.

The new analysis reveals that about 23 million people in Indonesia currently live on land below high tide levels — far exceeding the 5 million previously estimated.

As the study forecasts that oceans could rise between 0.6 and 2.1 meters throughout the next centuries, a significant number of Indonesian coastal cities on Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan, among other islands, are threatened by chronic flooding in 2050.

Among the big cities are Palembang in South Sumatra, Banjarmasin in South Kalimantan as well as many coastal areas along the northern coast of Java, including parts of Semarang in Central Java and Surabaya in East Java.

Jakarta, which is the country’s capital and home to a population of 10 million, is expected to be particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding, threatening the already sinking city, which has many other urban problems on its hands.

A map produced in the study shows that seawater is projected to inundate most of North Jakarta and West Jakarta, even reaching the National Monument in Central Jakarta, which is surrounded by dozens of government offices, including that of the President in the State Palace.

Environmental concerns and overcrowding have been behind President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s decision to move the capital city from Jakarta to East Kalimantan's North Penajam Paser and Kutai Kartanegara regencies.

Kalimantan, however, is also haunted by the risk of flooding as by 2050, projected rising sea levels could affect some coastal areas in North Penajam Paser, the map shows.

Although the report could not specifically detail the impending economic or humanitarian costs, it suggested that rising sea levels could “disrupt economies and trigger a humanitarian crisis” globally in the coming decades.

“As sea levels continue to rise throughout the century, chronic flooding will spread and more land will be permanently lost to the ocean,” the report said. “By 2100, CoastalDEM’s elevation data show, land currently home to 200 million people could fall permanently below the high tide line.”

According to the report, cutting global emissions would help to reduce the threat posed by sea level rises, lowering the total number of people potentially affected by flooding or permanent inundation by 20 million at the end of the century.

The Environment and Forestry Ministry claims that the government is aware of the daunting threats Indonesia faces, such as the rising sea level as a result of intense global warming.

The ministry's climate change management director general, Rhuanda Agung Sugardiman, said studies suggested that the sea level would rise 2.1 m in the country’s coastal areas by 2050.

"In some places like Tegal on Java's northern coast, seawater has entered residents' houses located 200 m from the shoreline," Rhuanda told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.

He said efforts to reduce global warming should be carried out jointly by all countries. Indonesia had committed to preventing further rises in the Earth's temperature by, among other things, reducing the high rate of deforestation in the country.

Rhuanda explained that the government hoped to reduce deforestation to 325,000 hectares per year by 2030, from the current 460,000 ha annually. In 2014, the deforestation rate was 1.1 million ha.

In a bid to achieve the target, the ministry no longer issues permits for the development of new plantations in primary forests or on peatland.

The practice of burning forests to open new plantation areas has been blamed as the main culprit behind widespread forest fires in the country this year.

"If we can protect the forests from deforestation and burning, we will have significantly contributed to the efforts to save the world," Rhuanda said, adding that the ministry also aimed to restore 12 million ha of forests and 2 million ha of peatland by 2030.

Major reforestation initiatives have been implemented since 2018, Rhuanda pointed out. "Around 70 percent of the KLHK's budget is dedicated to reforestation," Rhuanda said, referring to the Environment and Forestry Ministry.

A report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) released in September also highlights the need to cut carbon emissions, as it predicts that if the emissions remain unabated, the waterline — which has risen nearly 4 millimeters a year since 2006 — could increase 100-fold going into the 22nd century.

An interactive map showing lands at risk based on the report can be accessed via the Climate Central website.

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