ASEAN should not stand by and watch India walk away from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, a prominent former ASEAN diplomat has warned, reminding the bloc not to repeat mistakes made by the Asia Pacific Economic Community (APEC).

The RCEP is a trade deal that includes all 10 ASEAN member states as well as China, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and India, the last of which decided to pull out at the 11th hour after seven years of tough negotiations.

Altogether, the deal would have represented more than 45 percent of the world’s population, a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of US$21.3 trillion and some 40 percent of global trade, which makes the endeavor highly strategic for all the parties involved.

However, disagreements between China and India over access to the latter’s giant consumer market have reportedly undercut talks, and the remaining 15 parties announced that they would sign the deal by next year in Vietnam, while leaving the door open to India to rejoin.

The deal was initiated in 2011 during Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN, said the country’s former top diplomat Marty Natalegawa, as part of efforts at the time to connect the dots among existing ASEAN free trade deals and provide added value to the group’s economic activities.

In view of the latest developments relating to the RCEP, Marty warned against alienating India from the process and risk RCEP negotiations losing momentum.

“ASEAN, collectively, cannot remain passive in this situation. We can't simply be ‘okay, well that's too bad but maybe it's time'. No — we are the ones who brought this [up] and this is proof of ASEAN centrality in action. Can we deliver what we promised we can? Otherwise we will say, ‘okay, ASEAN does not have the diplomatic weight and heft to deliver’ — this is what’s at stake now,” Marty said in a discussion hosted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Wednesday.

“Having let the genie out of the bottle, ASEAN cannot now simply say ‘well it's a pity India is not on board, we just have to have an agreement among the 15 of us,’” he said.

On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi appealed to members of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) to help the state negotiate trade deals like the RCEP, saying that the participants could not afford to have the deal be “taken hostage” by India.

Marty added that the RCEP was established to correct what APEC had failed to achieve, and without India in tow, ASEAN would find it difficult to balance the rise of China. He argued that one of APEC's biggest weaknesses was not having India as a member of the forum, so he urged ASEAN not to repeat the same mistake with the RCEP.

“Foreign policy is not emotion. Emotion is not policy. This is not a matter of men, but of nation-states. Men can be emotional and frustrated, and that’s your right,” he said.

“But this concerns nations that are built on decades of plans, not at the whims of men’s fleeting emotions. — you can’t entertain that.”

Inspired by the success of ASEAN, which was formed in the mid-1960s, APEC was established in 1989 to promote free trade throughout the Asia-Pacific region, and comprised of 21 countries on the Pacific Rim.

However, observers argue that APEC has been of modest use to its members and that hopes it would become a forum for pursuing open markets for trade and investment have largely fizzled.

CSIS vice chairman and member of the board of trustees, Jusuf Wanandi, said that despite the hiccups, the RCEP was ASEAN’s biggest achievement so far, particularly as the United States under President Donald Trump had left the region behind. “It is an important effort because it is the first binding agreement we’ve had since Trump became president. That is critical,” he said.

Even without India, the RCEP bloc would amount to almost a third of the world’s total GDP, although in terms of market size a deal without India would account for just under 30 percent of the global population, compared with nearly half if India had remained in contention.

Popular

Kadin urges stability after Constitutional Court ruling

Jokowi says transition to new government to begi

BCA loan disbursement surges 17.1 percent yoy in first quarter