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Jakarta Post

Prabowo, Ganjar lead again in 2024 electability polls

  • News Desk

    The Jakarta Post

Jakarta   /   Thu, January 7, 2021   /   06:50 pm
Prabowo, Ganjar lead again in 2024 electability polls Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto waves toward journalists as President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo (unseen) unveils his new Cabinet on the steps of the Presidential Palace in Jakarta on Oct. 23, 2019. (JP/Seto Wardhana)

Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo have topped the list of potential candidates for the 2024 presidential race, according to two recent electability surveys.

In a survey published by Vox Populi Research Center on Tuesday, Prabowo ranked first with an electability rating of 18.9 percent.

Ganjar came in second place and only by a small margin, securing 18.5 percent of the vote from 1,200 respondents

The survey was conducted from Dec. 26-31, 2020, with a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

Prabowo, who stood against President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in the 2019 presidential race, saw his electability rise by 1.8 percent from a similar survey conducted by Vox Populi in October.

Meanwhile, Ganjar's electability also rose by 0.9 percent compared with the October survey.

Other public officials with high electability ratings include West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil (12.8 percent), Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan (7.7 percent) and Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno (6.5 percent).

Meanwhile, a recent poll published by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) gave Ganjar the highest electability rating as a potential candidate for the 2024 presidential election, scoring 15.7 percent.

Prabowo slightly lagged behind in the SMRC survey with 14.9 percent, of 1,202 respondents, saying they would vote for him if the election were held right now.

The survey, conducted on Dec. 23-26, 2020, placed Anies and Sandiaga in the third and fourth places with electability ratings of 11 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively.

West Java’s Ridwan ranked fifth with 7.1 percent while Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, the chairman of the Democratic Party and the eldest son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, followed with 3.2 percent.

SMRC executive director Sirojudin Abbas said the survey was conducted through phone interviews.

"The margin of error is around 2.9 percent," Sirojudin said on Tuesday, as reported by Kompas.com.

He explained that based on the poll result no political figure had major support for the 2024 presidential race, with the highest rating only reaching around 15 percent.

Ganjar has seen his popularity rise in the past year, with experts believing this is largely due to his handling of the COVID-19 health crisis in Central Java.

A July survey by pollster Indikator Politik found that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician had seen his electability increase sharply from a similar poll in February.

Ganjar topped the list of potential candidates for the 2024 race by scoring 16.5 percent, an increase of 7.8 percent from February.

On the other hand, Jakarta’s Anies continued to see his electability decline despite his perceived strong leadership in the capital’s pandemic response.

According to the Vox Populi survey, as per January this year, Anies’ electability dropped by 1.7 percent compared with October and by 3.6 percent compared with its June survey.

While the next presidential election is still a few years away, the current crop of regional leaders has been scrutinized for their ability to lead an effective pandemic response, while figures like Prabowo and Agus Yudhoyono have tried to bolster their overall popularity in public office or through their political networks.

With the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia showing no signs of slowing, observers are eager to spot potential candidates to lead the country in a post-pandemic world.

On Thursday, Indonesia logged a record-breaking 9,321 new confirmed COVID-19 cases, bringing the total tally close to 800,000. Analysts believe the scope of the crisis might actually be much greater, given the nation’s poor testing capacity and high positivity rate. (nal)