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Ukraine war: All are losers
Indonesia and the world at large, especially developing nations, have suffered as the Ukraine war exacerbates global supply chain disruptions.
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Ukrainian servicemen walk on the road toward their base near the frontline in the Donetsk region on Feb. 4, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP (AFP/Yasuyoshi Chiba)
O
ne year after President Vladimir Putin began the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, the Indonesian proverb menang jadi arang kalah jadi abu (win to charcoal lose to dust) remains applicable and will continue to be so for Russia, while the adage lepas mulut buaya masuk mulut harimau (out of the crocodile's mouth into the tiger's mouth) prevails for Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelensky.
There is no end in sight for the Ukraine war so far. But even if Putin eventually emerges the winner, Russian taxpayers will have to pay dearly for the aggression. In the eyes of the international community the invasion will never be justified too. Russia will end up a great loser in this unnecessary war.
We do not know how long the Russian population can withstand this dangerous game because they have been hit hardest by the war. They have felt the pinch of the economic sanctions imposed by many countries on Russia.
There is little information about whether the war has sparked widespread anger among the Russian people, but such a reaction will be just a matter of time.
For Kyiv, abundant military assistance from western countries has been crucial for its survival. But even when it eventually manages to expel the Russian military, Ukraine will have to pay huge moral and economic debts to the West. There is no such thing as a free lunch in this war.
One month after the invasion, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) issued a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion and demanded Moscow immediately withdraw all military forces. Five countries, Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Russia and Syria, voted against it, while 35 abstained.
In October 2022 the UNGA passed a resolution condemning the so-called referendum by Russia in four regions in Ukraine, which most of the member countries described as an “attempted illegal annexation”. Four countries, Belarus, North Korea, Nicaragua and Syria, were against the resolution while 35 abstained.
Indonesia joined the two world condemnations against Russia.
The war will certainly prolong, for better or worse. United States President Joe Biden visited Kyiv on Monday to reiterate his administration’s all-out support for Ukraine. Previously, French President Emmanuel Macron also met President Zelensky in person in Ukraine for the same reason.
In his capacity as president of the world’s Group of 20 largest economies, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo traveled to Moscow and Kyiv in June last year to invite Putin and Zelensky, the two leaders, to attend the November G20 summit. Putin skipped the Bali meeting while Zelensky delivered his videotaped message.
In his conversation with Putin, President Jokowi conveyed his concern about the dire impact of the war on the global economy. Indonesia and the world at large, especially developing nations, have suffered as the war exacerbates global supply chain disruptions.
President Putin has warned of the possible use of nuclear weapons to win the war, but such an option would be devastating also for Russia. Even the conventional war now underway has already inflicted severe damage to the country.
Western media reported that the Russian Army has lost more than 141,000 soldiers, nine times the number of casualties in two Chechen wars and 9.5 times that of Soviet Union soldiers killed in the Afghan war.
On top of its debilitating impact on Ukraine and Russia, the war has dragged the world into yet another crisis just as it is about to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Global supplies of food and energy in particular have been disrupted, putting millions of people at risk of starvation.
The longer the war lasts, the more lives will be claimed and the costlier price people in Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world will have to pay. In the end, neither Russia nor Ukraine will come out as the winner. Only if peace prevails, will everybody win.
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