The competition ahead of the 2024 elections is heating up as Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the biggest party in the ruling coalition, and President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo met on March 18 at the State Palace to discuss food sovereignty, foreign policy and the 2024 elections. Speculations are rife that the PDI-P may consider pairing election frontrunners Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto, which could lower the chances of a runoff election.

Ganjar, the outgoing Central Java governor, and Prabowo, the defense minister and chairman of the Gerindra Party, were touted as a prospective presidential and vice-presidential candidate pair after both were seen accompanying Jokowi during his visit to Kebumen regency, Central Java, earlier this month.

Although the power to nominate candidates rests in the hands of Megawati, it is believed that Jokowi will give his blessing to a prospective successor determined to carry on the legacy of his administration, such as the relocation of the country’s capital to East Kalimantan. While the initial phase of this megaproject is expected to be completed by the end of 2024, which is already beyond the end of Jokowi’s term, the Nusantara capital may only be completely developed within 10-15 years’ time. Jokowi reportedly sees both Ganjar and Prabowo as figures who could fill his shoes and see this project through to its completion.

The two names were also reportedly mentioned when Jokowi met with Megawati at the State Palace last week. Everyone is now buzzing about the possibility that the PDI-P will finally announce its candidate for the upcoming election. PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto, who was also present at the meeting, only confirmed that the two figures met as party cadres and discussed prospective alliances and presidential candidates of the PDI-P.

Amid these talks, however, there is some discord over who would run for the country’s highest office and the second-highest office, respectively. Gerindra’s deputy chief patron, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who is also Prabowo’s younger brother, welcomed the political arrangement but noted that Prabowo would press forward with his presidential bid and that Ganjar would act as his running mate. 

On the other hand, Hasto reiterated that the PDI-P, Indonesia’s largest political party, would be nominating one of its own cadres as a presidential candidate, as per Megawati’s instructions.

What’s more

If Prabowo and Ganjar end up joining hands, the 2024 presidential election would likely be a two-horse race against former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. Anies has secured the support of the NasDem Party and the opposition parties, namely the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), who have formed an electoral alliance known as the Coalition for Change. Such a development would effectively turn the election into a competition between a government-backing camp versus an opposition camp, according to Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) politics and social change head Arya Fernandes.

Arya added that a Prabowo-Ganjar pairing also stood a good chance of winning given that they both attract voters from different demographic and geographic segments of the public. 

Whether a Prabowo-Ganjar pairing will materialize or not is still debatable considering their respective parties are currently still at odds. For one, the Gerindra Party has already teamed up with the National Awakening Party (PKB) and will not be able to make any unilateral decisions. PKB deputy chairman Jazilul Fawaid was quick to state that Prabowo and PKB chairman Muhaimin Iskandar are still in talks over the alliance’s nominations. With both Gerindra and the PDI-P keen on nominating their own members for the country’s top job, it seems unlikely that either would back down on their demands.

At the very least, President Jokowi and Megawati’s meeting has signaled that the PDI-P will announce its candidate within the next few months and doing so would give the ruling party more time to familiarize its nominee to the public. Moreover, according to National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) political expert Siti Zuhro, the PDI-P’s next move would likely influence the existing political constellations, especially if the party does decide to nominate two figures with the highest electability ratings thus far.

The electoral alliances that have already been formed are not set in stone. National Mandate Party (PAN) expert council chairman Dradjad Wibowo even admitted that there was still a chance for his party to side with the PDI-P, despite already being part of the Golkar-led United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). However, the other members of the alliance, Golkar and the United Development Party (PPP), are still exploring their options as well.

What we’ve heard

A source from the PDI-P revealed that Megawati had left a long message through Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung asking to meet the President. However, it was difficult to arrange the meeting due to Jokowi’s busy schedule. The meeting only took place on March 17, which attended also by Hasto and Pramono. “But it took a while to request this audience,” said the source.

This meeting specifically discussed the 2024 elections, including the Central Jakarta District Court’s decision in favor of the Prima Party. The decision ordered the General Elections Commission (KPU) to postpone the 2024 elections to July 2025. Megawati wanted to know whether the decision was part of the government’s plan to postpone the election or not. According to this source, Jokowi admitted that he did not know anything about the court’s decision.

During that encounter, Jokowi and Megawati also discussed the PDI-P’s presidential candidate. Megawati asked all parties, including Jokowi, to wait for her decision and announcement. Within the PDI-P, Ganjar and House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani were the most likely nominees for president. “Megawati asked Jokowi to wait for her decision,” said a source from the State Palace.

With regards to the PDI-P nominating Ganjar as its presidential candidate, a senior PDI-P official said that those in Megawati’s inner circle all supported Ganjar. According to this source, Ganjar’s chances are very high. However, Megawati has not yet communicated this choice to other parties. “Puan had been asked to no longer build alliances but just to increase the party’s electability,” the source said.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access our latest edition to read the articles listed below:

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