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Limiting the risk of nuclear escalation in the Russo-Ukraine war
Any use of nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine could trigger retaliation by other nuclear-weapon states, causing the situation to spiral out of control.
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Russian missile air defense systems are seen during the International military-technical forum “Army-2021“ at Patriot Congress and Exhibition Centre in Moscow on Aug. 23, 2021. (Reuters/Maxim Shemetov)
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n March 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a plan to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, starting with the development of a nuclear storage facility set to be finished next month. Russia has since sent its Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems to Belarus and has modified around 10 Belarusian Su-25 Frogfoots to carry tactical nuclear arms.
Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, made the situation graver still by offering nuclear weapons to any nation willing to join the Union State of Belarus and Russia.
The proliferation of nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus has raised fresh concerns over the progress of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the larger geopolitical contestation. It has also brought into question the effectiveness of nuclear nonproliferation as promoted by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
As a country that champions nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament, Indonesia’s muted response to the development in Europe is certainly worrying. Compare this to Jakarta’s outspoken reaction to AUKUS, the trilateral alliance of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, which is planning to supply nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. The Indonesian government seems to be using a double standard when it comes to expressing its concern over nuclear proliferation.
It might seem that the Russo-Ukrainian War and its subsequent developments would have a remote impact on Indonesia due to its distant geographic location. However, such a perception is self-damaging and would only undermine our position in championing nonproliferation.
Jakarta’s interest should be to ensure that the war does not involve more actors or spread to cause new conflicts elsewhere in the world. In addition, the risk that nuclear weapons may proliferate to unscrupulous actors, be they state or non-state, should also be taken as an interest by the government.
The use of nuclear weapons in the war would have far-reaching consequences. Chief among them would be that the nuclear taboo norm that has been in place since the end of World War II would be instantly shattered.
