The Golkar Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN) have finally decided to ally themselves with the Gerindra Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB) to support Prabowo Subianto in his presidential bid. This makes Prabowo the current presumptive presidential candidate with the biggest political backing, which could translate into a better chance of winning the 2024 race.

After significant back and forth, Golkar, Indonesia’s oldest political party, ultimately put its foot down and chose to back the retired general for the upcoming presidential election. Golkar chairman Airlangga Hartarto, who is also the coordinating economic minister in President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s second term in office, said the party believed Prabowo’s leadership was needed to push Indonesia out of the middle-income trap.

PAN’s continued support for Prabowo, on the other hand, is not surprising considering the party’s backing of Prabowo in the 2014 and 2019 elections, both of which he lost to Jokowi.

The four-party alliance has drawn speculation that Jokowi is the one pulling the strings. Apart from rumors that Jokowi prefers his defense minister over the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle’s (PDI-P) presidential nominee, Ganjar Pranowo, it is worth noting that Prabowo’s coalition includes four out of the five pro-government parties meant to form the grand alliance raised last April.  The United Development Party (PPP) was also part of this so-called grand alliance but has already voiced its support for Ganjar.

Gerindra has already surpassed the presidential threshold of 20 percent of the House of Representatives seats, thanks to its initial partnership with PKB. Combined, the two parties had 22.26 percent of House seats. With Golkar and PAN added to the mix, this figure shot up to 41.41 percent.

A bigger number may not always equal a greater advantage, however. The issue that remains is who will be nominated for the second highest office. With two more political parties to accommodate, Prabowo will certainly have a tough time choosing his running mate.

PKB, understandably, has been eager to nominate its leader Muhaimin “Cak Imin” Iskandar as vice president, while Golkar will likely put Airlangga forward. Meanwhile, PAN is in favor of nominating State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Minister Erick Thohir, a popular non-partisan figure who is also a close ally of Jokowi.

University of Trunojoyo Madura (UTM) political observer Surokim Abdus Salam is of the opinion that voters will not be swayed by big alliances and that it may backfire on Prabowo. Against an opponent with strong political backing, Surokim posited that voters might feel inclined to vote for the underdog, in this case possibly Ganjar or former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. Indonesia’s voting behavior has changed drastically since the last election and in 2024 millennials and Generation Z will be making up more than half of the electorate.

Hence, the formation of large political alliances must not only be used for power sharing, but also to make a collective and focused effort to shape a leader that can better the country and its people. After all, political parties only nominate presidential nominees while the people are the ones who vote for them.

What’s more

Until the registration for the presidential and vice-presidential candidates closes late in November, the current political map is still subject to change. At the moment, a three-horse race between Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies is quite likely. Changes to this existing political constellation could occur if a political party decides to switch allegiances or, as experts have suggested, one of the presumptive presidential candidates runs for VP instead.

Andalas University political observer Asrinaldi, for one, believes the entire political map could shift if the alliance supporting Anies collapses. Anies’ presidential ambitions hinge on support from the Coalition for Change and Unity, which consists of the NasDem Party and the two opposition parties, the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

Noticeable friction between NasDem and the Democrats over Anies’ running mate has recently raised speculation that the latter might jump ship and join another political alliance. Should Anies’ alliance split up, Asrinaldi predicted the Democrats would join the PDI-P and PPP to support Ganjar while NasDem and PKS would stand with Prabowo. In this scenario, it is also probable that Anies would take the position of Prabowo’s running mate.

On a separate note, the maneuvering of Golkar and PAN has dealt a serious blow to the PDI-P since the two parties were meant to form the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), along with PPP, as a political vehicle for Ganjar if he was not nominated by his own party. PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri did nominate Ganjar last April, allegedly without Jokowi’s knowledge. Since then, the two have engaged in a power struggle to determine the political alliance of the pro-government parties in the upcoming presidential contest.

What we’ve heard

Several politicians from the new alliance stated that support from Golkar and PAN for Prabowo indicated Jokowi’s preference for the defense minister over PDI-P candidate Ganjar Pranowo as his successor. “Jokowi definitely supports Prabowo,” said a party executive.

According to this source, the alliance was also formed according to Jokowi’s directive. Through his confidants, Jokowi asked Airlangga to declare Golkar’s support for Prabowo. Meanwhile, Prabowo actively lobbied Airlangga and PAN chairman Zulkifli Hasan to join his political alliance. The lobbying efforts included offers for several ministerial posts to the two parties if Prabowo won the 2024 elections.

A team of Prabowo supporters has also been prepared as a political vehicle for Jokowi’s son and Surakarta Mayor, Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Several politicians claimed Prabowo would choose Gibran as his running mate. “Gibran would be a choice all parties in the alliance could accept,” said this source.

Another source said Jokowi’s support for Prabowo has again sparked tensions between the President and Megawati. The source explained that the presidential contest is a contest between Megawati and Jokowi. Several people in Megawati’s inner circle have considered other alternatives for Ganjar’s running mate, one of them is Anies Baswedan. “It aligns with Megawati’s vision, which is to strengthen the unity of nationalist and Islamic groups,” the source said.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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