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Analysis: Survey suggests presidential debates can change electoral landscape
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Ready for distribution: An official prepares ballot boxes at the Tanah Abang district branch of the General Elections Commission (KPU) in Jakarta in 2019. (The Jakarta Post/Wendra Ajistyatama)
T
he first round of the 2024 election debates organized by the General Elections Commission (KPU) took place on Tuesday, following the latest survey results that showed nearly 29 percent of the respondents remained undecided about their choice for the Feb. 14 election.
The results of the survey by leading daily Kompas, one of the most reliable and known for its independence, indicate that the debates carry high stakes, as how these encounters play out could sway undecided voters.
The 2024 debates might lack depth, however, since participants are given limited time to answer questions. Still they give voters a glimpse at the candidates’ personality and character, their communication skills and how they handle pressure.
At Tuesday’s two-hour debate, Prabowo Subianto appeared uneasy and sweaty as he struggled to recite his memorized talking points. Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan came across as more eloquent speakers, as they were more articulate in answering questions from either their rivals or the debate panel.
While Prabowo either went overtime and was rudely cut off by moderators, or gave short answers that elicited a reminder from moderators that he had more time, Anies effectively used his allotted time, almost to the second. Ganjar delivered sharp and succinct responses, but at times fell far short of the allotted time.
Defense Minister Prabowo is leading in all opinion surveys, including the latest from Kompas, with former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo coming in at a distant second and third, respectively.
Most surveys suggest that the number of undecided voters is too small to have any impact on the election, so the Kompas survey sparked heated debate over its differing results. It has also raised hope among Anies and Ganjar’s supporters that either could still pull off an upset win in February.
