The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is literally struggling to retain its top position in next week's general election, with surveys putting it just ahead of the Gerindra Party. The surveys also show that parties campaigning on an Islamist agenda are further losing ground, but then all elections in the past have always been dominated by secular-nationalist parties.

The PDI-P won the most votes in 2014 and 2019 making it the largest party in the country with the largest number of seats in the House of Representatives. The party at that time benefited from the popularity of Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, who ran for the presidential election on its ticket, and won both times.

This time, the PDI-P's presidential candidate, former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, does not enjoy the same popularity, with surveys putting him in third and last place in the presidential race.

Challenging the PDI-P's position is Gerindra, the party behind Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto whom surveys put in the lead in the presidential race. It is Prabowo's turn, and automafically Gerindra's, to profit from Jokowi's massive "pull factor". Although not running in this race, Jokowi remains a popular figure, able to influence the outcomes of the Feb. 14 presidential and legislative elections.

Jokowi has openly endorsed Prabowo, who is running with his eldest son, 36-year old Gibran Rakabuming Raka. His large band of non-partisan loyal supporters will likely heed his instruction about who to vote for in the presidential race and which party in the legislative election.

All surveys put the PDI-P in the lead, though only just, and it will almost certainly lose the huge margin it enjoyed in 2019. A survey by Poltracking Indonesia in January shows the PDI-P winning 20.1 percent of the vote, higher than the 19.33 percent it won in 2019, but Gerindra comes a close second with 19.9 percent, a 6 percentage point jump from 2019. Other surveys had Gerindra and the PDI-P running neck and neck.

Golkar, the party that had won all six elections under Soeharto in 1972-1998, will likely retain its third place, but with a lower percentage. Also struggling is the Democratic Party (PD), which won the 2009 elections on the back of then incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The party is now chaired by his son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.

Eighteen parties are contesting the national elections, but to get representation in the House, they must win at least 4 percent of the total national vote. In 2019, 20 parties contested the election and only eight of them made it to the House.

With most of them campaigning on nationalist themes, voters find it hard to tell them apart and many will likely vote for parties known to them. And in the absence of clearcut ideology, voters have easily switched between the nationalist parties.

What’s more

While the center field is already overcrowded, the PDI-P in the past has enjoyed almost exclusively the field to the left of the center. But the PDI-P may lose some votes to the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which is also positioning itself in the left of the center. In October, the PSI named Jokowi's youngest son, 28-year Kaesang Pangarep, as chair only two days after he joined. Jokowi has since appeared in PSI campaign videos to help it make the 4 percent threshold to win representation in the House.

Seven parties are using Islam to win votes, although the National Awakening Party (PKB), unlike the other six, is not campaigning for an Islamic state or sharia (Islamic law). Of the other six, surveys say only the Justice Welfare Party (PKS) will make it to the House.

The United Development Party (PPP), the oldest Islamist party, could be on its way out for the first time. The Islamist parties are part of the Indonesian political landscape as they represent the aspirations of people craving for Islam to play a bigger role in state affairs, but their size is never large enough to raise the alarm, at least judging from the election results. Besides, these parties are at each other's throats competing for the same small pool of voters.

Sometimes, the small votes they win are enough to get them not only seats in the House but also to join the government, to influence policies. The PKS was part of both governments under Yudhoyono, and the PPP has been part of the Jokowi government.

The political parties have only this one shot at the elections, unlike the presidential race, which may go to a runoff in the case where no candidate wins an absolute majority.

The incoming president in October will likely want to bolster his strength in the House and will invite other parties, even those that oppose him in the presidential race, to join the government. The more seats the parties have in the House, the stronger their bargaining power will be in securing strategic Cabinet posts.

President Jokowi is heading a coalition government comprising seven of the nine parties represented in the House, which jointly control more than 80 percent of the seats. In return for parceling out Cabinet seats to the parties, the President relied on them to help secure his legislative agenda.

The PDI-P may not win the presidency this time around, but the party will want to make sure that it continues to win the most votes in the legislative elections to be able to have some say in the next government.

What we’ve heard

Some PDI-P politicians attribute the decline in the party's electability in various regions to the influence of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo. There are PDI-P voters who are loyal to Jokowi, so some of them are shifting to the party led by Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto—the presidential candidate who is supported by Jokowi. "There is a significant shift after Jokowi's support for Prabowo became clear," said one politician.

A senior figure of the party, however, said an internal study has found the PDI-P remains on top of the people's minds. Following the PDI-P are Gerindra and the Golkar Party.

To ensure victory in the presidential and legislative elections, party members are instructed to promote presidential and vice-presidential candidates Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD door to door. The party seeks to maintain dominance in its strongholds like Central Java and Bali.

According to a source, elected legislators may not be sworn in if the presidential election votes are lower than the legislative election votes. "PDI-P will leave the legislative seats vacant to encourage party members to work hard to help Ganjar-Mahfud win," the source said.

Another concern for parties outside the Prabowo-Gibran coalition is the dynamics in the House of Representatives after the elections. According to this source, if elected Prabowo might try to form a large coalition to make sure his government will receive majority support from the House. The source mentioned that several Gerindra agendas are feared to impact democracy, including, reinstatement of the indirect election of regional heads and the original 1945 Constitution.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

Politics

1. PDI-P struggles to stay top, Islamists losing ground in 2024 vote
2. Concerned intellectuals ask Jokowi to return to democratic path

Business and Economy

1. Bansos drives government, household consumption steady
2. Conglomerates back presidential candidates, mutual interests
3. Israel opposes Indonesian entry to OECD

Popular

Indonesia not affected by Southeast Asia-wide heat wave: BMKG

Residents fear for safety as Mount Ruang volcano erupts

In defense of Indonesian democracy