Among the ideas Prabowo has proposed while speaking at international conferences or in media interviews are: send Indonesian peacekeeping forces to Gaza, medevac up to 1,000 Palestinians out of Gaza for treatment in Indonesia, and send more relief supplies to Gaza using Indonesian Military (TNI) hospital ships and transport planes.

He may have spoken out of turn about sending peacekeeping forces, and the Foreign Ministry clarified later that the matter had not been raised at the United Nations. As for flying Gazans to Indonesia for medical treatment, the government has not discussed this plan and it presents logistical challenges, since Indonesia has no access to the war-torn territory.

Sending relief supplies might be the only feasible idea, as Indonesia has done so before albeit with some difficulty: In the absence of diplomatic ties with Israel, Indonesia has had to coordinate aid distribution through a third country, such as Egypt and Jordan on previous occasions.

Meanwhile, Prabowo has been active in international conferences, taking part in the Shangri-La Dialogue Asian security summit in Singapore in late May and representing Jokowi at a major conference early this month to call for international action in Gaza. Although he appeared in his current capacity as Jokowi’s defense minister, both Indonesian and international media portrayed him as the incoming president, so his views and ideas regarding Gaza raised a few eyebrows.

In April, one month before the General Elections Commission (KPU) confirmed his landslide election victory, The Economist published an article he had penned. In it, he accused the West of double standards in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while keeping mum on the Israeli offensive in Gaza, where the death toll has exceeded 37,000 Palestinians, including thousands of women and children.

His views and ideas on Gaza, irrespective of their feasibility, point to a president who will be taking a more active foreign policy stance, including on the Israel-Hamas war. On his return from Jordan, he reported to Jokowi that the Palestinians he met in Amman had asked Indonesia to also pay attention to the escalating violence in the West Bank.

The Israeli media have mentioned Prabowo as the Indonesian defense minister in reports about the increasing prospect of the two countries opening diplomatic ties, though they may have overplayed the significance of Prabowo sharing a panel with Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata at an international conference in Bahrain in 2021.

What’s More

Prabowo’s office has not commented on these reports, while the Foreign Ministry has categorically denied any suggestion that the Jokowi administration is quietly pursuing the idea of opening ties with Israel. Indonesia has maintained its official position that it does not recognize Israel and has no intention to open diplomatic ties with the Jewish state until after Palestine is recognized as a sovereign state.

Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi has done much on behalf of President Jokowi since Israel declared war on Hamas in October. She has traveled extensively since then to drum up international support for the Palestinian cause, as well as to stop the Israeli military offensive. In May, she traveled to a ministerial conference in Brussels to discuss the proposed two-state solution to end the conflict. With a president who shows little interest in foreign affairs, Retno has become the public face of Indonesia on many global issues, including the war in Gaza. This could change after Prabowo is inaugurated in October, since we are expecting a president who will be much more active in foreign affairs. And with his experience as a former Army general and defense minister for the last five years, as well as his overseas education, Prabowo is certainly more knowledgeable than Jokowi about the challenges of the emerging geopolitical landscape. But Retno’s successor under the Prabowo administration will not necessarily find their job easier, since they will likely need to coach the “foreign policy president” about the complexities and intricacies of international diplomacy, not to mention its delicate nature.

As defense minister, Prabowo has departed from government’s foreign policy stance on at least two occasions. The first was when he said he respected Australia’s decision to form the AUKUS trilateral security alliance with the United Kingdom and United States; whereas the Foreign Ministry called it “unhelpful”. The second occurred last year, when he came up with his own Ukraine peace plan, taking the Foreign Ministry by surprise. Even Jokowi had to issue a statement later to clarify that Prabowo’s peace plan was a personal idea and did not represent the government’s official position. Prabowo’s Gaza peacekeeping plan is another flag indicating that the Foreign Ministry may have its work cut out in ensuring that the new president stays in line with the government’s foreign policy. On the other hand, the ministry might find itself in a position where it must realign Indonesia’s foreign policy with Prabowo’s views.

What we’ve heard

Prabowo has formed a special team to prepare the transition, especially in the political and economic fields. The team is led by Sufmi Dasco Ahmad and Thomas Djiwandono. “Meanwhile, foreign policy will be handled directly by Prabowo,” said a source.

According to a colleague of Prabowo, the defense minister has a keen interest in foreign affairs and regularly follows worldwide geopolitical developments. The source said Prabowo reads foreign media every day before starting his activities. On various occasions Prabowo attended strategic defense and geopolitical forums. He also frequently met with leaders of other countries, although these meetings were primarily about defense matters. The source indicated that Prabowo will pursue a foreign policy different from Jokowi. “Prabowo will be active from the beginning of his administration,” the source added.

Sources within Prabowo’s circles said the president-elect would not appoint political party figures for the posts of defense minister and foreign minister. One figure who is very likely fill the defense minister post is Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, Prabowo’s long-time close friend who currently serves as a special assistant to the defense minister. “Prabowo deems Sjafrie is a class apart,” the source said.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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