King Maha Vajiralongkorn gave his royal blessing to the 38-year-old daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra as the country’s 31st prime minister on Aug. 18. On the same day, the King also fully pardoned Thaksin. The military generals also rallied behind her, while no doubt waiting for her to make mistakes.

There are no signs that the military and the royal family’s supporters realize that their predominant role in the Thai politics is more damaging than they thought. Instead of creating stability, their maneuvering will only lead to instability that will undermine the country’s economy.

ASEAN neighbors have been impressed by Thailand’s economic development model, especially its agriculture and tourism sectors and the high inflows of foreign investment. But now international business organizations have predicted Thailand’s GDP growth will slow.

Paetongtarn was nominated by the Pheu Thai Party, backed by her father, the second-largest party after the Move Forward Party (MFP), which was disbanded by the Constitutional Court on Aug. 7 for its readiness to reform the country’s political system, including the royal family.

Thailand has two favorite ways of toppling democratically elected governments, by military coups and, more recently, by the Constitutional Court. Both the military and the court can pick whatever excuse they please to justify their acts.

Such a conclusion is based on Thailand’s contempt for democracy in the last two decades, which started with the ouster of Thaksin from his prime ministerial post in 2006 and his sister Yingluck in 2014. Until now Thaksin remains popular, but the military elite are very hostile to him, therefore there have been doubts whether the third Shinawatra government will survive until the next elections in 2027.

Thailand has infamously become a role model for leaders of undemocratic nations in the region who wish to hold on to power, at the expense of popular aspirations. Look at Myanmar, where the military junta under Gen. Min Aung Hlaing learned from the Thai generals when seizing power from the government of Aung Suu Kyi in February 2021.

The Myanmar junta leader has openly admired Gen. Prayut Chan-ocha, who ousted Yingluck in 2014 and maintained his political grip until 2023. Thailand under Prayut had shown reluctance to support ASEAN’s initiative to restore peace in Myanmar.

Whether the change of government in Thailand will lead to stability will depend much on the military and the royal family. ASEAN neighbors, including Indonesia, can only wish Paetongtarn and the Thai nation good luck amid the test of time.