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Prabowo’s ASEAN 'pivot'

Prabowo may have broken with ASEAN tradition in taking his “preemptive” regional tour last week instead of after his inauguration, but seeing as his aim was to reassure our neighbors that Southeast Asia would remain the core of his administration's foreign policy, it is highly likely that Indonesia's next president will keep with the low-key, primus inter pares approach of his predecessors.

Editorial board (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Thu, September 12, 2024

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Prabowo’s ASEAN 'pivot' Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto (center left) speaks with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Sept. 7, 2024 during his visit to Putrajaya, south of Kuala Lumpur, as part of the president-elect’s ASEAN tour. (Courtesy of/Prabowo Subianto’s media team)
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resident-elect Prabowo Subianto knows very well that the slogan “grow together, prosper together” and the principles of “consensus” and “noninterference”, often uttered by ASEAN leaders, have become cliché and sources of endless mockery among critics of the 10-member bloc.

Despite its imperfections, these values are a key reason why ASEAN has grown from a small, localized grouping into one of the most successful regional organizations.

As defense minister, Prabowo has made it clear that he wants Indonesia to play a more decisive role in global economic, political and security affairs, given that it is the largest Muslim-majority country and third-largest democracy in the world, as well as a member of the Group of 20 (G20) of the world’s biggest economies.

But he will also cling to ASEAN as one of his core foreign policies.

Indonesia’s G20 membership has encouraged other ASEAN countries to step up their international posture.

Look at Malaysia and Thailand, which have expressed their intention to join the informal BRICS grouping of emerging economies founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Malaysia sees this as an opportunity to engage in rising multilateralism, while Thailand wants to enhance its leadership role among emerging countries.

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Singapore has meanwhile become a model of good governance, law enforcement and quality education. Its neighbors are learning from the tiny island republic, even if they are often reluctant to admit this.

Many may not have noticed the consistent determination of Indonesian leaders, particularly the late president Soeharto, to keep a low profile and to be primus inter pares, or first among equals, even though the country is a founding member of ASEAN and its largest member by GDP, population and territory.

Prabowo is expected to maintain these objectives after he takes over from President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo on Oct. 20.

He has already introduced a new ASEAN diplomatic tradition by visiting Indonesia’s regional neighbors, meeting with Bruneian Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith and Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and his father and predecessor Hun Sen, now Senate president.

Prabowo also made a brief stopover in Bangkok to attend a dinner hosted by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was accompanied by his daughter, newly installed Prime Minister Paetongtarn. He then wrapped up his three-day whirlwind tour on Sept. 7 with a visit to Kuala Lumpur, where he met with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Sultan Ibrahim Ismail.

Traditionally, an ASEAN leader visited their regional counterparts after they had been inaugurated. Prabowo’s ASEAN tour aimed to reassure fellow members that Southeast Asia would remain the core of his administration’s foreign policy over the next five years.

But he also aspires for Indonesia to have a more active role across a wider spectrum, from economic to political and security affairs.

All members are equal at ASEAN, where all decisions are based on consensus and follow the principle of noninterference. Human rights activists often criticize these two principles, while many Indonesians want their country’s voice to carry more weight because of its size.

However, ASEAN has also shown that it can be tough, such as in its stance on Myanmar’s military junta after the bloody February 2021 coup against the democratically elected civilian government, regardless of its slow progress on this matter.

Many suspect that Prabowo, a former Army general, will be more emphatic toward current ruler Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, despite the junta’s ruthless oppression of Myanmar’s civilian population.

But we believe the incoming president will respect ASEAN’s consensus to bar the Myanmar military from any official events until it fulfills its promise to restore peace and democracy in the impoverished nation.

ASEAN has been successful in creating a platform for dialogue and dispute settlement among its members, and even with nonmembers, as a mechanism to prevent conflict and maintain regional stability.

Prabowo is inheriting decades of best practices from his predecessors that have contributed to ASEAN’s growth in an uncertain world. He just needs to keep up the tradition.

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