he campaign period for the Jakarta gubernatorial election kicked off this week, but conspicuously missing from the race is former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who all surveys say is the most popular figure for the job. The man who held the job in 2017-2022 is being kept out because no political parties chose him for their ticket. And when three political parties that had earlier endorsed his candidacy pulled out at the last minute, it was too late for him to register as an independent.
Anies never hid his ambition to return to his old job, publicly stating his interest shortly after losing the presidential election in February to Prabowo Subianto. The governorship would have given him a public platform to contest the 2029 presidential election. Now that this is out of the question, he has to think of alternative ways to maintain his visibility. But given the widespread support he commands, he may still have some influence in the Jakarta election. The real question is, how big might the Anies factor be in the outcome?
Three pairs of candidates have registered for the race, which will be held on Nov. 27 simultaneously with other elections for regional heads across the country. Leading the pack is former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil, who is running with Islamist politician Suswono. The pair is supported by the formidable coalition of seven political parties: the Gerindra Party, Golkar, the Democratic Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), NasDem, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). The last three had supported Anies’ presidential bid and were going to support him in this coming election, but they switched sides to join the coalition put together by president-elect Prabowo. The other contestants are Pramono Anung and Rano Karno, who are running on the ticket of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), and the independent pair of Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana.
All surveys put Ridwan ahead of of the other candidates, with over 50 percent of the vote, raising the prospect of winning the race in one round. Pramono comes a distant second at around 25-30 percent and Dharma a negligible 2-3 percent. But the surveys also show a sizable number of undecided voters, some put it as large as 25 percent, that could upset the results on election day. Many of these may be people who would have voted for Anies if he ran. The possibility of a second round cannot be ruled out.
Many disappointed Anies supporters, calling themselves “Anak Abah” (Dad’s children), have turned to social media calling on voters not to boycott the election but spoil their ballot papers. Abah is an adopted Arabic word, and Anies is of Arab descent. Anies has been careful not to endorse the call as electoral law makes voter suppression a crime. He has been keeping his cards close to his chest, not endorsing any of the candidates, but stressing he will use his right to vote. In a social media message to the Anak Abah group, he told them not to rush in making their choices, and instead study the platforms of each candidate. Diehard supporters might vote according to his instruction.
Among the contestants, Pramono is the only one vying to tap Anies supporters, and he is still trying to meet with the former governor during the campaign. Mindful that Anies enjoyed the support of many Muslim voters, he claims he has secured the support of many kiyai (elderly Muslim leaders) in Jakarta who had endorsed Anies’ candidacy in the past. Pramono has also pledged to continue many of Anies’ policies and projects that he started during his governorship. Coming into the race as the underdog, Pramono will be counting on the votes from Anies supporters to stand a chance of beating the hot favorite Ridwan.
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