Governments and the international community should take a cautionary approach to HTS's success in Syria, particularly in view of its history of violence and human rights abuses, its foundational ideology as well as how radical groups across the globe have responded to its resurgence as a divine sign that could rekindle the "jihad" narrative.
he fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and the subsequent rise to power of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) marked a new chapter in a conflict that has raged for more than a decade. This change not only brought euphoria to some segments of the local population, but also was welcomed enthusiastically by several radical groups in countries across the world, including Indonesia.
Shortly after HTS declared the fall of Assad's government, various radical groups in Indonesia, such as Jamaah Ansharu Syariah (JAS), Majelis Mujahidin (MM) and groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, sent their congratulations. Even exponents of the disbanded Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) gave a similar response. These groups saw HTS's success as a glimmer of hope for the establishment of a caliphate.
But the question remains: Does HTS truly represent new hope for the global caliphate movement?
After overthrowing Assad, HTS quickly took control of key Syrian cities and swiftly consolidated its dominance in areas previously held by Assad's government. Along with these strategic cities, Syria is now under the group’s control.
HTS claims to be an alternative to Assad's repressive regime. However, its history and affiliation with the global terrorist group Al-Qaeda raise significant questions about the group’s motives and strategies. For now, HTS remains unconvincing as a neutral liberation militia; they are more likely an opportunistic group oriented toward global jihad.
Support from radical groups in Indonesia like JAS, MM and Muslim Brotherhood affiliates demonstrates how HTS has become an inspiration for those that remain obsessed with the idea of a cross-border “jihad”. Even former HTI members who had long advocated for the establishment of a caliphate see HTS as a new partner to realize their political ambitions.
However, HTS has not shown any signs of attempting to establish a universal caliphate as envisioned by these groups. Instead, it remains focused on local domination and maintaining its power in Syria with the backing of foreign entities with vested interests.
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