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EU, ASEAN in the same boat as Trump vows to rule waves

EU and ASEAN must strategize some common responses to the second Trump administration.

Simone Galimberti (The Jakarta Post)
Kathmandu
Tue, January 28, 2025 Published on Jan. 26, 2025 Published on 2025-01-26T10:59:07+07:00

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EU, ASEAN in the same boat as Trump vows to rule waves Familiar faces: Heads of state pose for a family photo on Dec. 14, 2022, at the European Union-ASEAN summit at the European Council headquarters in Brussels. The two regional groups met to bolster ties. (AFP/John Thys)

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eaders and policymakers worldwide would better assess and shape any future policy on how they will deal and engage with the wider world by answering three basic questions: Does it make us safer? Does it make us stronger? Does it make us more prosperous?

New United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio came up with these. On a short note on his first day of work at Foggy Bottom, he wrote the following:

“Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?”

How would European and Southeast Asian leaders reply to these questions?

Like it or not, the planet anxiously awaits how the second presidency of Donald Trump will unfold. A recent study conducted by the European Council on Foreign Policy showed that a vast majority of the people polled from outside Europe welcome the 47th president of the US.

There is the belief that Trump will put an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine even though, apparently, after just a few days, the only deal he can muster with President Vladimir Putin is a threat to impose tariffs on Russian products.

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As much as I dislike Trump and his policies and I am starting to miss the principles-based foreign policy of Anthony Blinken, I feel hopeful that Trump’s second rise to power will finally force the European Union to embrace its traditional “leadership by crises” mode in which the union will take bold steps toward integration and unification.

I am not the only one thinking that Trump’s reelection represents an opportunity for the EU.

“Bitter medicine: Why some EU officials quietly yearn for Trump” was the title of an article published by Politico before the US election.

“Here’s a dirty little secret about the US presidential election: Some European officials think a victory by former President Donald Trump could be what the European Union needs to muscle up on defense and get tough on China”.

Indeed the new power equation in Washington, DC is creating some healthy pressure on European leaders.

French President Emmanuel Macron dared to say that the old continent needs “European Champions” in the defense industry even if “Let's be clear, we [the French] won't always be the European champions, but at least we'll be sure that European champions have a global reach.

I am wondering if it is implicitly giving the green light to Fincantieri, an Italian shipbuilder, in restarting the acquisition of Chantiers de l'Atlantique, a French rival whose initial attempted takeover was called off in 2021 because of political pressure from the Élysée Palace.

“What is going on now is not a threat to Europe, it's a great chance for us, a great opportunity,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said before the European Parliament recently.

Poland holds the presidency of the Council of the EU until the end of June.

“The EU needs to become a synonym of power, of force, ethics, morality, laws, but also power. In politics, if you do not have power, you are worthy of contempt,” Tusk added.

To some extent, this could be interpreted as the Europeans' response to Rubio’s doctrine. Fortunately, Europeans understand that increasing exponentially their defense spending and finally building a “Defense Union” cannot come at risk of jeopardizing their external relations.

That is why the president of the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, did not hesitate to rush to Montevideo in December to sign the EU-Mercosur Agreement after years of stalled negotiations. That is why the EU did not hesitate, just a few days before Trump’s inauguration, to upgrade its relationship with Mexico.

The EU should not hesitate in redoubling its efforts to engage Southeast Asia, too.

Soon ASEAN will have a new 2045 Vision in place, which is focused on a “Resilient, Innovative, Dynamic and People-Centered ASEAN”. But how the people-centric part of it will roll out remains a question.

I am afraid that, once again, the bloc will miss the opportunity. What is supposed to be a visionary and powerful document will be not only abstruse and incomprehensible but also ignored by the people of the region.

Trump’s return to power puts both ASEAN and the EU in a similar quagmire. Under imminent geopolitical tectonic changes, both institutions must renovate and find a new sense of purpose.

ASEAN must, first and foremost, become relevant to its citizens and in trying to do so, rethink its detached and aloof way of policymaking. The EU must find the boldness not only to strengthen its defense and become less reliant on the US but must also have the vision to reopen negotiations to change its founding treaties.

ASEAN needs not only a new vision but a serious and honest relook at its founding charter, while the EU should move toward an update and improvement of its Lisbon Treaty.

Von der Leyen recently announced a trip to New Delhi to restart negotiations on a new trade agreement. She should also extend her visit to Southeast Asia.

It is good that the EU is willing to push ahead with new separate agreements with Malaysia and Indonesia. Perhaps a whole EU-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement is unthinkable now but what about setting the stage for 2030 or 2045?

Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Manila should be key interlocutors for the EU. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, President Prabowo Subianto and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr could be interested in striking some deals with Von der Leyen and together, strategize some common responses to Rubio’s questions.

This trio could master the power to seriously rethink ASEAN even if it means a new, smaller group of nations willing to move ahead more unitedly than the other members even without going too far and dismembering the current regional architecture.

Moreover, both Southeast Asia and Europe have also a common necessity: they should no longer progress and change through crisis management but through real leadership.

Lest ASEAN forget, in a matter of regional and asymmetric integration, the EU is an interesting partner to learn from.

***

The writer is a freelance columnist focusing on human rights, regional integration and youth in the Asia-Pacific.

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