In effect, data has become a performance, not a reflection.

Indonesia’s statistical bureau, BPS, announced last week that the economy grew 5.12 percent year-on-year in Q2, its swiftest pace since mid-2023. That number became a baton brandished by Finance Minister Sri Mulyani, who hailed it as vindication of her budgetary stewardship and declared with finality, “We trust BPS.” 

Yet behind the applause, whispers of skepticism circulated among economists, many of whom had pegged consensus growth at closer to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent. The BPS figure failed the eye test. It jarred against slumping car sales, declining consumer confidence, contracting manufacturing and retreating foreign capital, as widely reported across Indonesia’s media.

This dissonance unveils a deeper malaise: moral hazard, where BPS faces little downside should the numbers overshoot, while political actors bask in the glow. BPS claims GDP rose because its own measured components, consumption (+4.97 percent), investment (+6.99 percent) and exports (+10.67 percent), rose too. Those internal figures then bolster the GDP total, creating a closed loop and the false logic of tautology, where assumptions validate themselves rather than withstand scrutiny.

Look at consumption. BPS prides itself on nearly 5 percent growth, yet car sales, a bellwether of consumer demand, fell almost 10 percent during the first half of 2025 and plunged another 22 percent in June alone. Retail sales barely moved and household sentiment dimmed. 

Investment tells a similar tale. BPS declared a 7 percent leap, yet foreign direct investment, the clearest marker of global confidence, dropped 7.5 percent in one quarter, its steepest post-pandemic slide. Private-sector investment stalled, infrastructure packages arrived late in the quarter.