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Have we not learned our lessons?

In places where communities had been trained to respond to early warnings, the difference is striking: lives and properties were spared because people knew what to do.

Grace Endina (The Jakarta Post)
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Wed, December 10, 2025 Published on Dec. 9, 2025 Published on 2025-12-09T14:08:43+07:00

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Local residents walk on logs used as a temporary bridge following a deadly flash flood on Dec. 7 in Batang Toru, South Tapanuli, North Sumatra. Local residents walk on logs used as a temporary bridge following a deadly flash flood on Dec. 7 in Batang Toru, South Tapanuli, North Sumatra. (Reuters/Willy Kurniawan)

W

hat we experienced in the past few weeks is not new. We have had a similar experience when Tropical Cyclone Seroja hit East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) back in April 2021. It is, however, unfortunate that we never learn our lessons. But what is more terrifying is that this incident will not be the last. 

According to the State of Climate in Asia 2024, released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Indonesia is among the most prone countries to extreme rainfall patterns due to rising sea surface temperatures. WMO also notes that Indonesia is among the most affected by a combination of monsoon-related rainfall and tropical cyclone activity.

Although the casualties in NTT were fewer than in North Sumatra, West Sumatra and Aceh, the notable lesson is that we can learn to reduce risks and impacts, including by developing preparedness and response strategies for tropical cyclone events. 

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was ranked among the top 10 deadliest disasters of 2021 by the Emergency Event Database (EM-DAT) report, resulting in over 200 casualties in NTT. Alor Island was among the most affected, even though it was not as close to the cyclone's track. 

Similar to Tropical Cyclone Senyar, Seroja triggered flash floods, floods and landslides. Alor Island experienced 236.5mm of rainfall a month's worth of rain in just 3 hours. The topography, the local government's low capacity and, most importantly, the vulnerable community conditions in the Alor Islands made the cyclone's impact more severe. 

Interestingly, Tropical Cyclone Seroja was not the first cyclone to impact the region. There were several cyclones, such as Inigo in 2003 and Bonnie in 2002, however, poor documentation of complete impact data and lessons learned persisted. 

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When Cyclone Seroja approached NTT, the warning sirens may have sounded, but for many people, and even for government and non-government agencies, they barely registered. Living for years through "manageable" extreme weather events had bred a dangerous sense of familiarity. 

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