Why do I dare to predict that the military junta’s rule will not last long? Because of its track record, especially in abusing minorities, including the Rohingya Muslims.

President Jokowi and PM Muhyiddin instructed their foreign ministers, Retno LP Marsudi and Hishammuddin Hussein respectively, to organize a special ASEAN meeting on Myanmar. First and foremost, they were asked to work with Brunei as the rotating chair of the regional grouping this year. Normally, a chair will invite other ASEAN members for a meeting.

In April or May, ASEAN leaders will gather for their first summit, and regroup for the second and larger summit in November – the East Asian Summit, with the attendance of dialogue partners: the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India.

In coping with the Myanmar crisis, a special meeting initiative is very unlikely to receive a positive response from other ASEAN foreign ministers. Thailand will be the first to oppose any attempt to question the legitimacy of Myanmar’s junta, because Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha himself assumed power through a military coup. Cambodia and the Philippines have also displayed reluctance, saying the coup in Myanmar is “an internal affair”.

To avoid a deadlock, I suggest Foreign Minister Retno to emulate Soeharto, the country’s second president. Soeharto often called some fellow ASEAN leaders for a limited and informal summit to discuss specific issues that directly concern them. Such a “mini summit” would be attended by the leaders of Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei. Countries in the Mekong Delta, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia, also quite often held separate leaders’ meeting that excluded Indonesia, because the latter had no interest in the delta development.

The same mechanism could be adopted if ASEAN wants to help Myanmar solve the political crisis. Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei should be part of the mini summit, as they face demands domestically for an end to the suffering of the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar. The three countries could involve Singapore, which has invested a lot in Myanmar.

The four countries can hopefully come up with a unified, strong statement to be presented during the first ASEAN summit in Bandar Seri Begawan. Pressure has been mounting on Myanmar’s military from the world, especially the US and the European Union, which are ready to impose personal sanctions against the generals.

Indonesia needs to lead ASEAN in the push for Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing to think about his own future. The general will enter his mandatory retirement on July 3. He may have not realized financial difficulties his family may endure now that his bank accounts and personal wealth come under the US Treasury Department’s scrutiny.

People in Myanmar have demonstrated their anger with the junta for taking over the mandate they had given to Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD), which won the November election by a landslide. The military has shut down the internet, but the people will always find a way to express their resistance to the army general who toppled the civilian government just a few days after he publicly stated adherence to the military-drafted constitution.

Internationally Gen. Aung Hlaing’s image is declining. The International Court of Justice in The Hague has named him one of the parties responsible the most for the alleged genocide of minorities in Myanmar, including the Rohingya. The Rohingya cause has become a global one, which should create an opportunity for justice to prevail and a national reconciliation to happen in Myanmar, regardless of the complexity of the issue.

US President Joe Biden has said that the military “should relinquish power they have seized,” and threatened to renew sanctions against the junta. Reuters reported on Dec. 11, 2020, that the US imposed sanctions on Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, his military deputy, Gen. Soe Win, and two other senior officers who were in charge of the crackdown on the Rohingya, for alleged gross human rights violations against the minorities.

Reuters also quoted John Sifton, Asia advocacy director for Human Rights Watch, as saying: “If the EU follows suit with similar measures and works with the US to press other jurisdictions to crack down, soon the Myanmar military will find that their world is geographically and financially shrinking.”

It will be uneasy for the Myanmar junta to persuade the people to accept the military dictatorship. Time has changed. The coup has only provided the military generals “enough weapons” to shoot themselves.

Now that Indonesia and Malaysia have launched a diplomatic offense, they stand a good chance of success if they combine their efforts with international cooperation. If the generals remain stubborn, they must be ready to face the consequences.

You may have to admit that you should respect ASEAN more than ever, generals.

***

Senior editor at The Jakarta Post

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