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BMKG warns of further climate-related threats
High waves, strong winds forecast as cyclone passes
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he Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned of heightened weather activity that could lead to more disasters, as the clear-up following widespread flooding and landslides in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) and West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) continued this week.
The agency projected that heavy sea conditions might hit the provinces as the Seroja tropical cyclone, which is believed to have caused the disaster, would last until at least Wednesday.
“Apart from heavy rains, we will also see strong winds and high waves that may resemble a tsunami. These high waves may make landfall,” BMKG head Dwikorita Karnawati told a press conference on Tuesday morning.
She said the waves formed would not be as strong as those caused by a tsunami but that they would still be “damaging”, appearing at different heights in several areas across eastern Indonesia’s waters.
Waves reaching between 1.25 to 6 meters in height are projected to occur in parts of the Sumba Strait, the Sape Strait, the Wetar Strait, the Sumbawa Sea, the South Banda Sea, the Arafuru Sea, the Sawu Sea, as well as the waters of Flores, Baubau, Sumba, Kupang, Rote, Sabalana Islands, Selayar Islands and Wakatobi Islands.
Rains of moderate to heavy intensity, accompanied by lightning and strong winds, may also hit areas of Bali, South Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi.
After Wednesday, Seroja’s vortex speed is forecast to continue strengthening, although it will move in a southwesterly direction away from the Indonesian land mass. The vortex speed has increased to 110 kilometers per hour from 85 km/h when it was detected last Friday, and is predicted to reach a height of 130 km/h.
The BMKG noted that Seroja was the strongest tropical cyclone Indonesia had seen since 2008. It is the 10th tropical cyclone recorded by the BMKG’s tropical cyclone warning center (TCWC) in Jakarta.
As a result of climate change, the average sea surface temperature in affected water areas has increased to 30 degrees Celsius from 26 degrees Celsius. Along with that, the periods between tropical cyclone cycles are getting shorter, from an average of every two-to-four years to once or twice a year since 2017.
“Seroja is the first tropical cyclone to be this powerful because its center reached land even as it first appeared. This is unusual,” Dwikorita said.
The Cempaka tropical cyclone that occurred in November 2017 was the last major tropical cyclone, but the center of its vortex was in the sea, with its tail immediately disintegrating upon making landfall.
“This is correlated with the increase in sea temperatures. It is something we need to realize together; that global warming must be mitigated. Otherwise, these tropical cyclones will become a regular occurrence,” she said.
As part of its mitigation efforts, the BMKG will continue to report climatic conditions to residents and provide early warning signs for evacuees through WhatsApp groups.
Disaster mitigation authorities have been ramping up their response to the twin disasters, especially regarding the evacuation of residents and the search for victims, as ordered by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
During a limited Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Jokowi ordered national security forces and disaster agencies to deploy more search-and-rescue teams to reach isolated areas and island clusters through all possible routes.
The disasters on Sunday affected thousands of residents in one city and 10 regencies of NTT, as well as three regencies of NTB. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) had recorded 81 fatalities as of Tuesday morning and at least 103 missing.
The disasters also hit neighboring country Timor Leste, where 27 people died, eight people were missing and 7,000 people had been displaced as of Monday evening, according to data from the Indonesian Embassy in Timor Leste.
“In Dili, floodwaters inundated two-thirds of the city, but they have receded, leaving muddy puddles everywhere. River watershed infrastructure was damaged, and roads were ruined by landslides and sea erosion,” Sahat Sitorus, Indonesian Ambassador to Timor Leste, told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.
Sahat said that Indonesia would offer assistance to Timor Leste.
In Indonesia, the BNPB has prepared a cargo plane and at least four helicopters to streamline the distribution of logistical supplies. A joint team comprising the Social Affairs Ministry, the Indonesian Military (TNI) and the National Police has set up public kitchens at almost all evacuation points.
BNPB head Doni Monardo said health facilities and services had also been set up, although the number of doctors available was still limited. The Health Ministry is expected to send more doctors and medical supplies from Jakarta, South Sulawesi and East Java.
Addressing previous calls from various parties for the government to declare a national state of emergency, Doni said doing so was unnecessary due to the fact that local capacity was not severely affected and that Jakarta still stood ready to provide the authorities with optimal support.
Social Affairs Minister Tri Rismaharani flew to Adonara Island, one of the worst affected areas, with the regent of East Flores on Tuesday to hand out humanitarian assistance.
The ministry has provided compensation amounting to some Rp 15 million (US$1,034) for the families of each deceased victim and Rp 5 million to each injured resident. The central government has also prepared Rp 10-50 million for repairs to homes.
