Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said preparations for the summit are still underway at the senior official and foreign minister levels. "We hope that at the ASEAN leaders’ meeting tomorrow, we can reach an agreement on the next steps that can help the people of Myanmar get out of this delicate situation," she said at the Presidential Palace.

Expectations on ASEAN have never been higher as the world looks on for a solution to a bloody campaign that has killed more than 730 people and led to the arbitrary arrest of thousands more since the Feb. 1 coup.

Prodemocracy protesters and members of a growing civil disobedience movement are hoping that ASEAN can deliver an outcome that ensures Myanmar’s return to democracy and holds the military accountable.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has said that ASEAN’s role was more crucial than ever to prevent further deterioration. The secretary-general’s special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, is already in Jakarta.

Various human rights organizations have demanded that ASEAN impose targeted economic sanctions and press the junta to release political detainees, with some suggesting that if the coup government failed to cooperate, the leaders should consider ousting Myanmar from the bloc.

However, experts have warned against setting unrealistic expectations on what could be achieved when the leaders meet physically for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

Read also: Discourse: Hopes fall on ASEAN to shore up commitment to Myanmar peace, expert says

 

What would the meeting look like?

 

This unprecedented meeting, though proposed by President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo last month, will be led by Brunei Sultan Hasanal Bolkiah, who leads the monarchy’s chairmanship of ASEAN, and be hosted by the secretariat.

A physical meeting was considered the better option after countless virtual meetings, including the Informal ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (IAMM) last month, failed to deter the Tatmadaw from using violence against protestors.

As chair, Brunei decides the location of the meeting and its agenda, then issues the first draft of any outcome document.

Indonesia’s Retno said the commitment of the leaders to meet physically was a reflection of the “deep concern” within ASEAN regarding the situation in Myanmar.

Brunei also has the final say on who is invited to the meeting, which has raised concerns over the lack of representation by the recently formed Myanmar shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG), which continues to gain more support from the people of Myanmar.

NUG spokesperson Sasa expressed the unity government’s appreciation of ASEAN's willingness to address the crisis by convening the summit but insisted that the meeting would “unlikely be helpful” if it did not have a representative of the Myanmar people.

"The legitimate representatives of the people and country of Myanmar, the National Unity Government, stands ready to engage and attend any ASEAN meeting on Myanmar, including the one scheduled for April 24, which starts in less than 24 hours," he said in an official statement on Friday.

Read also: Pandemic concerns overshadow ASEAN meeting in Jakarta

The bigger concern, however, is the absence of several leaders, especially Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who has a closer personal relationship with Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and would, therefore, have had some leverage in the upcoming talks. Six ASEAN leaders and Myanmar's coup leader have confirmed their attendance.

What is the objective of the summit?

At the very least, leaders are expected to demand the safety, security and protection of the people of Myanmar’s basic human rights, said Indonesia’s representative to the ASEAN Intergovernmental Human Rights Commission (AICHR), Yuyun Wahyuningrum.

“Indonesia wants Min Aung Hlaing to commit to zero killings. No more people shall be killed or arrested arbitrarily; no more enforced disappearances and midnight kidnappings,” she told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

Civilians are also demanding that the Tatmadaw remove both armed and non-armed forces from the streets.

Yuyun added that the junta must commit to opening up the country to humanitarian assistance, including in the mobilization and distribution of supplies and medicine, including COVID-19 vaccines, for everyone in Myanmar.

People familiar with the current preparations have said that Indonesia was seeking to secure a humanitarian pause that would allow aid to be distributed throughout Myanmar.

Read also: Myanmar’s lawmakers tell ASEAN to pick sides

Will there be any way to ensure that the military ends its violence against protestors?

Despite global condemnation against the Tatmadaw’s “reign of terror”, ASEAN believes in the tradition of not embarrassing its members, said Randy Nandyatama of Gadjah Mada University’s ASEAN Studies Center.

A declaration and commitment to stopping the violence could be the most realistic and acceptable result from the meeting, but he was also doubtful “that the summit could produce a technical control and punishment mechanism for any violation”.

The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a Thai-based rights group monitoring the situation in Myanmar, reported no new deaths on Wednesday and Thursday, as the pace of killings have slowed over the past week.

However, the group also reported that the Tatmadaw continued to crack down on protesters, with more than 3,000 people currently under detention.

"This is most likely because of the upcoming ASEAN summit on April 24; it wants to avoid condemnation and accountability and is moderating its violence and terror in the easier-to-document urban areas," AAPP noted in its report on Thursday.

What about the Responsibility to Protect (R2P)?

Last month, the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), which represents Myanmar’s ousted Members of Parliament, urged the United Nations Security Council to trigger the R2P protocol to protect the people of Myanmar from further human rights violations.

R2P is a principle used in more than 90 UN Security Council resolutions that authorize the deployment of peacekeeping missions to protect civilians in war-torn places like Libya and South Sudan.

Tom Andrews, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, said it was "very reasonable" to explore the possibility of R2P in Myanmar but insisted that it did not have to be a military engagement, which could lead to a massive loss of life.

"I think that the brutality unleashed would be even more horrific than what we are seeing now. It would be a significant increase in the loss of innocent lives, and that needs to be avoided," he said in a statement published on the UN website.