The Republic of Indonesia, located in the center of the Indo-Pacific region, is currently in the eye of an intensifying geopolitical storm which will determine its future and that of the country’s people, even much more.

It now seems, at least at first glance, to be only a matter of time before the Republic will also have to make a choice in this difficult matter.

Of course, Indonesia must be guided by the interests of the Republic and its people in the choice it must eventually make. The question is, what other considerations should guide the country in making this choice? What options are actually available to ensure the Republic survives the clash of the titans?

An important factor in these considerations is that Indonesia possesses the greatest possible geopolitical, economic and military strategic significance for both the US and China. Indonesia risks becoming a battleground, but it also has leverage in this matter.

Sitting in the center of the Indo-Pacific, Indonesia can control several most critical straits, including the ever-busy Strait of Malacca, which are of (direct) vital importance for not only China and the region, but the world’s economy.

Indonesia, with its extensive archipelagic territory, provides China access to Australia and its allies, and the reverse is also true. The adage "All roads lead to Rome", points out that numerous options are available to achieve one's goals, but when it comes to the future of the Indo-Pacific, it is fair to say that "All roads lead through Indonesia". This means that the options for China and the US are limited and that whatever happens will involve Indonesia.

Both China and the US, as well as their respective allies, will want to use Indonesian territory for their own purposes, such as forward defense and offensive operations in case of an armed conflict, which they seem to be gearing up for.

Indonesia provides the antagonists with the ability to set up advanced bases to attack their respective opponent and to provide military-strategic depth to their individual defenses. It is of the utmost importance to the US and China that the use of Indonesian territory is denied to their respective opponent.

If it comes to a military conflict, the reality will be that neither the US nor China will care much about the Indonesian government’s position. Ultimately, Jakarta’s statement on Sept. 17 will only be noted and otherwise ignored, as this would suit both Beijing and Washington. Its effect will only be temporarily at best.

The Republic’s sovereignty will be violated as it suits the antagonists, just as this was the case with neutral Belgium in World War I and II. At the time, Belgium, just like Indonesia today, was situated between two rivals (Germany and France) that only pursued their limited self-interests at the expense of others, like China and the US are doing now.

Indonesia is vulnerable to violations of not only its sovereignty in the event of a conflict, but also its internal instability, which will be undermined by either the US or China if the other side were to have an alliance with Indonesia.

It is also a reality that Indonesia, like all other countries, does not have the military capabilities that could play a (decisive) role in a conflict between China and the US. Indonesia cannot tip the military balance in any direction, nor can Australia, for example.

This vulnerable and dire situation therefore requires a well-considered decision from Indonesia. There are great risks for Indonesia, but also great opportunities. First, Indonesia is not Belgium and moreover, the international political context is now fundamentally different.

It would be a wise course of action for the Republic to continue to not take sides and instead, follow an independent course together with allies that have yet to be recruited. Indonesia could choose to transcend the US and China’s selfish pursuit of power and instead take the initiative to begin designing a new international order that does not require war.

Indonesia’s actions and initiatives are now being closely monitored by China and the US, and their respective allies. Indonesia is not only in the eye of the storm, but also at the center of attention of politicians and strategists.

The Republic must therefore now exercise its great political leverage in the interest of the world community that China and the US have lost sight of.

Indonesia should act in the spirit of the Bandung Conference it successfully organized in 1955 on world peace and the role of the Third World in the Cold War, economic development and decolonization.

Of course, the world has changed substantially and faces different challenges today, but there are also important similarities. Indonesia should initiate a process to design a new global order that is not established on “the law of the strongest”, but on the assumption that we need to cooperate on a global scale to ensure our shared security and wellbeing.

This new arrangement must also ensure that we can more effectively tackle global warming and its consequences, poverty and vaccine inequality. The increasingly intense rivalry between the US and China and their respective allies will only hamper our ability to solve the existential challenges that confront us now.

By initiating a global Bandung conference, Indonesia can revive the constructive spirit it brought about during the Asia-Africa Conference of 1955.

This is a crucial moment when the Republic can manifest itself and throw its weight into the balance. Indonesia can offer a perspective other than war, which might become inevitable if decisive action is not taken.

Moreover, in the new order that is then designed, Indonesia can ensure that it will be represented in such a way that justice is finally served to the population of the fourth largest country in the world, and that their voices are heard.

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The writer has a PhD from the University of Amsterdam with a doctoral thesis on war dynamics and the development of the international system, and is the founder of Global4Cast.