So far, we have seen some relatively high enthusiasm from the public, which has become an opportunity for economic growth, both national and regional. Therefore, it is important for the central and local administrations to make the necessary preparations in order to gain the economic advantages.

The Transportation Ministry has estimated that around 85.5 million people will travel to celebrate Lebaran this year, a significant increase of 40 percent from the pre-pandemic 2019 mudik period.

The main destination areas for Idul Fitri travelers are Central Java (23.5 million people), East Java (16.8 million people), West Java (14.7 million people) and Greater Jakarta (5.9 million people).  Meanwhile, most travelers will depart from East Java (14.6 million travelers) and Greater Jakarta (14 million travelers). In regard to modes of transportation, most travelers will go by road (78 percent of total travelers), with 47 percent using private vehicles and 31 percent using public transportation. Meanwhile, some 10.4 percent of all travelers will go by air, 9.6 percent by train and 1.6 percent by sea.

We predict the increase will have a positive impact on national economic growth, especially in terms of boosting household spending. We estimate that household spending during Ramadan, Idul Fitri and mudik will be between Rp 77.6 trillion (US$5.3 billion) and Rp 116.5 trillion.

In business sectors, the mudik period may push transportation and storage, wholesale and retail, accommodation and food services, as well as tourism. 

The exodus will also impact the regional economies.

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