The 265.14-hectare Nusantara, meaning “archipelago”, will be the new home of some state institutions and at least 1.5 million civil servants starting in 2024.

President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo signed in February a new law that provides a legal framework for the relocation plan and swore in technocrat Bambang Susanto and businessman Dhony Rahajoe in March as the respective head and deputy head of the Nusantara Capital City (IKN) Authority for a five-year term. The pair will lead the new capital’s development, projected to be completed by 2045.

The National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) estimates that the IKN project will require at least Rp 501.56 trillion (US$35 billion), of which 19 percent will be covered by the state budget and the remaining by public-private partnerships and private investments.

The plan, which has been described as “ambitious” by some, has raised doubts among observers, as revealed by the CSIS’ latest survey. In a virtual press conference on Monday, CSIS researchers said that 58.8 percent of respondents familiar with the issue voted “not confident” on whether they thought the IKN-bound transition would run according to the government’s target of 2024. The survey polled a total of 170 observers, largely comprising academics, researchers, journalists, businessmen, lawmakers and bureaucrats, from late March to mid-April.

“Many of [the experts] seem to doubt that the government could reach its target. There are many reasons for this uncertainty, from budget matters to whether bureaucratic authorities will be convinced to leave Jakarta by 2024,” said Noory Okhtariza, a researcher at the CSIS' department of politics and social change.

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In late March, the government scrambled to find new investors to fill in a gap left by Japan’s Softbank Group after it called off a $30 billion investment previously promised to help fund IKN’s initial development. Following Softbank’s withdrawal, Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Panjaitan said Abu Dhabi had planned to invest $20 billion, though this has yet to manifest in an actual sponsorship.

Indonesian officials are now pulling all the stops to lure foreign investors following the issuance of government funding regulations for IKN in early May. So far, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Singapore and Finland have all seen their share of Indonesian representatives putting their best foot forward. None of the countries have committed anything yet.

Then there's the question of how eager Jokowi’s successors will be in completing the transition to Nusantara.

“There are also uncertainties over the sustainability of this project, like what would happen when [the country] has a new president. Will the project be continued?” Noory said.

Nearly 70 percent of overall respondents were also doubtful that the national state budget would suffice in settling the 19 percent of total IKN costs allocated to them.

“More experts seem to think that our state budget will not be able to finance this ambitious plan. Only slightly over 30 percent of them are confident that we will be able to pay,” Noory added.

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In mid-April, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced that Indonesia had allocated Rp 27 trillion to Rp 30 trillion in its 2023 state budget to fund the new capital. She said the money would be used to build basic infrastructure, state buildings and connectivity nodes for transportation. This allocation prompted words of caution from some economists concerned about the potential weight it could put on the state’s finances.

CSIS' Noory further explained that while the recently issued funding regulation revealed that the primary funding for IKN would come from “non-taxable incomes”, it did not describe important details about what those incomes consist of. The regulation also failed to mention how exactly private sectors are able to contribute and whether it makes business sense for them to invest in the first place.

So, while some ministers like Communications and Information Ministers Johnny G Plate have encouraged the public to “view the IKN development from an optimistic lens”, the recent CSIS survey concludes that the country’s observers will remain unconvinced until further clarity is provided by the government.

“There are many factors that make them feel skeptical with regard to the IKN program and its funding,” Noory said.