I often heard such generous compliments shortly before the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis swept the region. The hardest hit was Indonesia, where a political crisis was also triggered.

One of the online discussion’s participants, an influential senior economist, laughed at my cynical view, which I did not argue. I am not an economist, after all.

I was skeptical because I felt a sense of déjà vu. I had closely followed the severe economic and political crises that unfolded in the country 25 years ago. When the financial slowdown was creeping up on Asia, the world was still fully confident in Indonesia’s ability to stave off the crisis because “Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are very healthy and strong”.

I do not doubt Georgieva’s assessment, as it is likely based on a comprehensive study by her excellent team. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) share her optimistic view about Indonesia, too.

So, you might ask me: “Who do you think you are, daring to question the assessment of a world institution?” I am nobody, but sometimes, albeit very rarely, the truth can come from a very ordinary man.

Georgieva’s remarks were widely reported by the local press, including The Jakarta Post.

In our July 19 edition, we ran a story titled “Indonesia seen as ‘bright spot’ amid global economic gloom”. It quoted the IMF boss saying Indonesia’s economy would grow 5 percent this year and its inflation would rise slightly to over 4 percent, among the lowest in the world. She emphasized the country’s economy would stay healthy this year and was unlikely to face a recession.

“Bravo to [Indonesia],” she said. “Over the last few years, there has been tremendous progress in reforms that have made Indonesia much more resilient to shocks. […] The country succeeded to prevent a significant drop in economic output.”

According to a World Bank report in June, the Indonesian economy is set to grow 5.1 percent in 2022 and 5.3 percent in 2023 from a release of repressed demand, improved consumer confidence and improved terms of trade. Inflation is projected to rise to 3.6 percent (annual average) with a pickup in domestic demand and higher commodity prices.

The ADB said last week that the Indonesian economy would grow 5.3 percent and inflation would reach 3.3 percent next year.

“High prices for key commodity exports, however, are generating windfall export earnings and fiscal revenue, enabling the government to provide aid for costlier food, electricity and fuel while still reducing the budget deficit,” said ADB Indonesia country director Jiro Tominaga, as quoted by the Post.

Bloomberg also just released a survey concluding that 15 Asia-Pacific states would face a recession next year, listing Indonesia as the second most resilient country after India.

“The IMF has come here and praised Indonesia, it's not like it used to be. It means that the leadership of Indonesian President Joko Widodo is on the right track and let's work together to make sure we move forward again," State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Minister Erick Thohir said while accompanying Georgieva on a tour of the newly renovated Sarinah department store in Central Jakarta.

The SOEs minister’s reaction to Georgieva’s statement reminded me of president Soeharto and his ministers’ response before the Asian financial crisis peaked.

As a reporter for the Post, I followed the Asian financial crisis nearly on a daily basis. The crisis later sparked political upheavals that cost Soeharto his presidency on May 21, 1998, marking an end to his 32-year rule.

One of Soeharto’s most frequently repeated remarks were the magic words “Indonesia’s strong economic fundamentals” in quoting the leaders of foreign countries such as Japan and the United States, as well as officials of the IMF and tgee World Bank. Even when the crisis crippled Thailand and South Korea around April 1997, this belief persisted.

In June 1997, Soeharto went to Istanbul to attend a summit of eight developing nations, which included Malaysia and Iran, still confidently boasting about Indonesia’s economic fundamentals, which he said could withstand the economic doldrums.

The rupiah had begun to fluctuate at that time, but who would not believe Soeharto, who frequently won praise from the World Bank and the IMF? And Indonesia was the “poster boy” of multilateral organizations and industrialized countries.

Rather than taking the current praise for granted, the government needs to pay attention to the views of Josua Pardede. The chief economist at Bank Permata said that despite today’s low risk of a recession in Indonesia, the downturn in advanced countries could trigger a tsunami affecting the global financial market and economy.

“Indonesia should be extra alert to the global economic slowdown in the form of declining export demand, which will have implications on the stability of the trade balance. Its contribution is not as big as household consumption, but the trade balance affects gross domestic product growth,” Josua said, as quoted by Kompas last week.

Unlike in 1997-1998, Indonesia’s political stability is very convincing today. But next year is a political year, when all eyes will be on the general election scheduled for Feb. 14, 2024. When advanced economies tumble next year, the global crisis will eventually devour us, no matter how strong Indonesia’s “economic fundamentals” are.

You might accuse me of exaggeration and say that Indonesia will be fine, precisely as the IMF, the World Bank and the ADB have predicted. You could be right, but as an Indonesian citizen and former palace reporter, I just wanted to remind you of what happened here more than two decades ago, when the financial crisis finally struck.

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The writer is a senior editor at The Jakarta Post.