Western analysts are trying to portray Russia’s military as an ill-disciplined fighting machine that is equipped with obsolete weapons, supported by an antiquated supply chain and logistical support. Their main argument is that despite six months of fighting, the Russian military, with a horrendous lack of command and control at lower levels, has not been able to move beyond the Donbas, an area which was occupied by the Russian forces in the first few weeks of the invasion.

This argument apparently sounds valid when viewed in the backdrop of the “paralytic halt” in the Russian territorial invasion of Ukraine since March. But the fact is the Russian military is not as much “inept and incompetent” as being projected by the Westerners.

But writing off the Russian army altogether as a useless war machinery is a little too unrealistic. To move further inside Ukrainian territory and then maintain its control, the Russian army needs massive logistical support that is technically very difficult to execute and it will put inordinate financial pressure on the Russian economy, which is already being subjected to the stringent possible international sanctions.

Vladimir Putin, knowing well about these limitations, seems to be content with 20 percent of Ukrainian land in the southern and eastern parts of the country – perhaps this was the primary objective of his attack on Ukraine. Further invasion of Ukrainian territory is not viable for Russia at the moment – tactically and financially. 

Ever since the beginning of the 21st century, the Ukrainian people and politics have been clearly divided into two opposing camps: pro-Western and pro-Russian. The rivalry between the two camps picked up fire in the last two decades, experiencing two pro-Western revolutions or coups against pro-Russian governments.

This political divide has all the potential to result in a partition of the Ukrainian state in the coming days if Russian occupation continues until the summer of 2023. Some parts of the country, the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbass region, are already lost. Now Russia is employing intense efforts toward “Russification” of the occupied areas to permanently annex it.

The unexpected resistance exhibited by the Ukrainian government and its people has surprised both the Russian government and Western countries. Russia has been paying an acutely high price in the form of thousands of soldiers as well as colossal material loss – including a large number of planes, helicopters and hundreds of armored vehicles.

On the other hand, in their efforts to push back the Russians, Western countries have intensified their military, political and economic support to Ukraine. The prime objective of the Western countries is to ensure that Russia incurs even greater losses with each passing day in this war.

However, ironically, their similar reaction to the Russian invasion and the implication of the invasion will be quite different for the Western countries. While Washington is taking full advantage of the Ukrainian crisis, the European countries are paying a very high price in different ways.

First, the European countries are inordinately dependent on Russian natural gas and oil. With the war in Ukraine lingering on without any endgame in sight, European gas and oil prices are skyrocketing and wreaking havoc on their economies. Soon, it will begin to aggravate the cost-of-living crisis throughout the continent.

Second, after the Russian attack, millions of Ukrainians have fled their homes to seek refuge in other European countries. Although, for the time being, almost all European countries are showing high-octane generosity in accepting the Ukrainians, in the mid and long term the refugee problem will definitely hit the already dithering European economies even harder.

Third, in view of the ever-growing Russian threat, European countries will be compelled to expand their defense budgets, putting further pressure on their economies.

The United States, however, it seems, is the least affected country by the situation arising out of the Ukrainian crisis. In fact, the US is a major beneficiary. Unlike European countries, the US is not dependent on Russian gas and oil. Therefore, it has much deeper pockets at its disposal to sustain a large-scale war.

The second benefit provided by the Ukraine episode to the US is the revival of NATO, the future of which was in complete disarray until the Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border in the last week of February. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US found the best possible opportunity to consolidate and revive the fading NATO alliance.

In their urge to safeguard against any possible Russian aggression, now Europe has readily allowed the US to station more than 100,000 troops on their soil – the highest number of US soldiers in Europe since World War II. Factually speaking, the war in Ukraine has enabled US President Joe Biden to repeat his famous February rhetoric “America is back and NATO is back”.

Labeling the conflict as part of Russia’s resistance to an expansionist NATO, Putin is not expected to accept any suggestion of “defeat” or “unilateral ceasefire”. Instead, he may try to forcefully punish and snub Ukraine’s desire for closer EU integration by advancing toward the key port of Odessa, effectively landlocking the country and strangulating its exports.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, may seek additional tactical successes, like the sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser in April or possibly even retake some areas to remotivate Ukrainian troops and society and justify his requests for more financial and material assistance from European backers.

Ukraine’s resistance will be dependent upon the commitment of continued support from the West, which is already showing signs of fatigue. Putin is counting on this kind of scenario, where the Western leaders will hold up, especially if voters feel the costs, and it would push them to convince the Ukrainians to end the conflict on Russia’s terms.

But this is a distant possibility. Barring a disastrous military miscalculation, the Ukrainian army is unlikely to crumple outright in the near future and President Zelensky will not accept any negotiations that do not guarantee the recovery of all the lost territory, including Crimea.

But all this squarely depends upon the continued military and financial support from the West. Aid fatigue is increasingly becoming palpable in the US and with energy prices touching historic numbers and economists forecasting a menacing recession, now voices are emanating from within the Republican ranks for aid to Ukraine to be reduced and for President Biden to shift his focus on domestic affairs rather than foreign wars.

So, things are moving toward more complications in the Ukraine imbroglio. 

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The writer is a freelance columnist on international relations.