House of Representatives secretary-general Indra Iskandar confirmed on Wednesday that a presidential letter naming Jokowi’s nominee for the next TNI commander would be submitted to House Speaker Puan Maharani on Monday of next week.

“The State Secretary [Pratikno] will hand over the letter to Puan on [Monday]. The time is still unconfirmed," Indra said, declining to reveal who the sole candidate would be.

Speculation about who will succeed Gen. Andika Perkasa, who was appointed last year to replace then-TNI commander Hadi Tjahjanto of the Air Force, have intensified as the military chief nears retirement age in December.

Lawmakers expect Jokowi to name his nominee before the House goes into recess in mid-December so they have time to hold a confirmation hearing.

Jokowi has kept his preference a secret, but recent signs have pointed to Yudo, including the Navy chief’s meeting with State Secretary Pratikno behind closed doors at Merdeka Palace on Monday.

Some lawmakers on House Commission I overseeing defense said Yudo, who will retire in November of next year, had the upper hand in the race for the TNI chief post, given that no representative of the Navy had yet helmed the TNI during Jokowi’s presidency.

“The Army already had its chance, why would it be the Army again? If possible, it should be from the Navy,” said Commission I lawmaker Rudianto Tjen of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – the party of which Jokowi is a member.

The post-New Order convention was for the TNI chief to be rotated in an Army-Navy-Army-Air Force pattern, after the top post had been filled exclusively by Army generals during former president Soeharto’s 32 years in power. Jokowi broke the convention in 2015 when he nominated then-Army chief of staff Gatot Nurmantyo to succeed Moeldoko, who also came from the Army.

Prior to Andika’s nomination last year, Jokowi was under pressure to give Yudo a shot, so as to maintain the rotating leadership tradition, which advocates said would create a sense of equality among the rank and file of the three branches. But Jokowi named Andika instead.

This year, Yudo is going up against the Army again amid speculation that the President is considering handing the top post to Dudung for political reasons ahead of the 2024 election. Like Andika, Dudung comes from an elite background. His father-in-law, the late Maj. Gen. (ret.) Cholid Ghozali, was on Baitul Muslimin Indonesia’s supervisory board, an organization connected to the PDI-P that courted Muslim voters.

However, many observers say Dudung has lost his chance after his rift with Andika was disclosed by PDI-P politician Effendi Simbolon in September. A video showing Dudung mobilizing Army soldiers to vent their outrage toward Effendi went viral, with some soldiers making threats of physical violence against the civilian politician.

Speculation has also been rife that Jokowi is considering removing Dudung from his current position in the coming months, paving the way for Army Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad) chief Maj. Gen. Maruli Simanjuntak to take over the TNI chief of staff post. Maruli is the son-in-law of Jokowi’s closest aide, Luhut Pandjaitan.

As none of the three current branch chiefs of staff are Jokowi loyalists, appointing an officer who will retire next year seems to be a deliberate act on the president’s part, said Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow with the Indonesia Studies program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

“Jokowi seems not to have the right people [among the eligible candidates]. So appointing an officer who will retire next year will give Jokowi some leeway to buy more time to find someone who he can trust to continue his legacy,” Made said.

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