The eldest son of former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), Agus followed in his father’s footsteps with a military career. Graduating at the top of his class in 2000, he served in the Indonesian Military (TNI) until 2016, when he transitioned into politics at his father's instruction.

Agus’ political career began with a trial by fire in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election. With the backing of the Democratic Party-led Cikeas coalition, named after SBY’s residence, Agus ran against the more experienced Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama and Anies Baswedan, with Anies eventually prevailing.

Afterwards, Agus founded the Yudhoyono Institute, a think tank, in 2017 and succeeded his father as Democratic Party chair in 2020. As chairman, Agus has consistently opposed President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s administration, with the party positioning itself as a vehicle of “change and reform” at a national leadership meeting in September.

Despite his lack of political experience, Agus remains a mainstay in presidential discussions, helped by his status as SBY’s son and his position as the Democrats' chairman, according to Bawono Kumoro of pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia.

“His biggest handicap is the fact that he has zero experience in [elected office]. On the plus side, however, he is considered a 'blue blood' and he leads a major party," Bawono told The Jakarta Post.

Opposition VP

The Democrats hold 9 percent of seats in the House, which analysts consider a valuable bargaining chip because of the presidential threshold. Under prevailing laws, a party or a coalition of parties must hold at least 20 percent of the seats in the House to be eligible to field a candidate for the 2024 presidential election.

Currently, the Democratic Party is in the middle of coalition talks with the NasDem Party, which has declared its support for former Jakarta governor Anies, and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). The Democrats and PKS are the only two opposition parties in the House.

The convergence of the three parties around Anies, political researcher Arya Fernandes of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said, made Agus the likeliest candidate to be paired with his onetime rival.

“The three parties have no eligible candidate other than AHY. Yes, there are non-party figures like [West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil], but why would the Democrats accept him when they already have AHY?" Arya said, adding that while Ridwan was more popular in public opinion surveys, Agus still polled well.

A public opinion poll on the electability of vice presidential hopefuls released by Indikator Politik in December showed Ridwan with a small lead against Agus, with the two candidates the first choice of 19.7 percent and 16.3 percent of respondents, respectively.

While the survey showed a decline in support for Ridwan from a high of 25 percent in August, the AHY’s electability rating rose from 13.2 percent over the same period.

While Anies and Agus are often imagined running together given their popularity in the opposition camp, the survey also found that 19 percent of supporters of Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto were open to the idea of a Prabowo-Agus ticket. Prabowo ran and lost against Jokowi twice, in 2014 and 2019, before eventually joining the government as defense minister.

Last-minute announcements

With the party coalitions still up in the air and the deadline for candidate registration set for November 2023, analyst Bawono expected the public would see the vice presidential candidates announced in February 2023 at the earliest.

“If they decide on the running mate now, they’re going to lose the element of surprise and have their moves read by their rivals," Bawono said.

Bawono said that while the political landscape seemed to revolve around the three presidential hopefuls of Prabowo, Anies and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, he would not be surprised if vice presidential candidates were announced at the last minute.