The bilateral agreement, which Washington says could “close global gaps in enforcement” of maritime governance in a part of the region covered in vast oceans, may further drive US-China competition, analysts say, with Beijing warning against geopolitical contest masquerading as cooperation.

For neighboring Indonesia, however, increased US military presence near conflict-prone Papua offers both challenges and opportunities.

Parts of Papua, which has for decades been held back by chronic underdevelopment, are beset by armed conflict, with some of the most recent episodes of violence following the kidnapping of a New Zealand pilot. Several people have died in efforts to rescue the captive foreigner.

Some observers fear that a US presence next to resourse-rich Papua could negatively impact Indonesia’s domestic agenda, sparking calls for more diplomatic engagement with other regional powers to safeguard its security.

Others, however, are better disposed toward the US-PNG defense cooperation agreement (DCA).

“I don’t think Indonesia would be threatened by this latest cooperation [agreement] because unlike, say, the AUKUS agreement, there wasn’t any deal to sell controversial weapons,” said security analyst Fitriani of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Thursday.

“In fact, Indonesia may feel relieved that a big country is seeking to stabilize a relatively volatile country like PNG. If PNG fails, that actually may make the situation in Papua more vulnerable,” she told The Jakarta Post.

Though Indonesia has consistently championed the primacy of ASEAN and its mechanisms in the Indo-Pacific, recent weeks have seen Jakarta appearing to soften its stance, with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo signaling an openness to collaborating with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the AUKUS arrangement.

“We should view the QUAD and AUKUS as partners, not competitors. […] ASEAN’s aim is to make the region a stable and peaceful one,” Jokowi said on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit earlier this month.

The Quad, composed of the US, Japan, India and Australia, is an exclusive security grouping that seeks to counter China’s influence in the region. Meanwhile, AUKUS, another security arrangement between the US, the United Kingdom and Australia, is aiming to bolster Australia’s military capabilities by delivering nuclear-powered submarines.

Indonesia, which holds this year’s ASEAN chairmanship, made its stance on the submarine deal loud and clear in March but has stayed mum over the latest developments.

The Defense Ministry was not immediately available for comment on the US-PNG agreement.

A spokesperson for the Indonesian Military (TNI) told the Post that a larger US military presence was not yet a source of concern and that there were currently “no discussions to address it”.

Analysts have noted that Indonesia’s stance will likely be closely monitored by Beijing.

Thwarting suspicions

China’s increasing ability and willingness to challenge US interests has created a testy rivalry between the two that has spilled over into most corners of the Indo-Pacific, with countries big and small strategizing to maintain agency and avoid burdensome entanglements.

The South Pacific appears to be the latest theater of the great power rivalry, after last year’s security pact between China and the Solomon Islands.

While the details of the US-PNG defense pact have not been publicly issued, leaked documents show it grants American military personnel legal immunity and the ability to move freely within PNG territory and waters, which would allow for even faster deployment of military assets.

The deal is also meant to enhance Port Moresby’s “ability to exercise authority” where it has jurisdiction, potentially strengthening one of the region’s weakest militaries.

Despite the widespread assumption that the agreement was made in direct response to China’s growing presence in the region, PNG Prime Minister James Marape claimed the deal was not meant to counter any particular nation.

“Please don’t be – don’t think that something suspicious or funny is [going on] behind this,” Marape said in a speech after the signing ceremony.

“It does not affect [our other relationships], whether in China or Australia. It does not in any way, shape and form stop PNG from continuing to do business with those we do business with,” he added.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was sent in place of Biden, said in remarks on Monday that the defense deal was “not about any other country”.

“It’s about our relationship with the Pacific islands and the shared vision that we have. [...] This vision doesn’t exclude anyone; we welcome contributions by other countries, including the PRC,” Blinken said, in reference to China.

Separately, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said China had no issue with the deal but added that countries should be wary of “geopolitical games in the name of cooperation”.

In any case, military experts say it is difficult to gauge how significant of an effect the DCA will have on the region without knowledge of the details.

“I don’t think that these latest developments would necessarily inspire conflict, but I do see that Beijing would ramp up its influence via the economy,” said Beni Sukadis, an analyst at the Indonesia Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies (LESPERSSI), on Thursday.

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