The Jakarta Post
A new survey has found that Jakarta Governor Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo is twice as popular as Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party chief patron Lt. Gen. (ret) Prabowo Subianto.
A public opinion survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) has found that if a presidential election were to take place today, Jokowi would receive between 22.3 and 35.6 percent of the vote, against Prabowo who would garner between 12.6 and 19.7 percent.
The survey estimated the largest amount of votes garnered by both Jokowi and Prabowo could only materialize if undecided voters ' who made up 30 percent of the electorate ' made up their minds.
LSI senior researcher Adjie Alfaraby said the success of Jokowi would rub off on his political party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), in the legislative election.
'If Jokowi is nominated by the PDI-P, his position at the top will be secured, leaving the fight for second place between Prabowo and [Golkar Party chairman] Aburizal Bakrie,' Adjie said.
Aburizal is predicted to garner between 13.2 and 20.1 percent of the vote according to the LSI, which conducted the survey between Jan. 6 and 16, involving 1,200 respondents from the country's 34 provinces. Respondents in the survey were engaged in in-depth interviews.
The new survey also predicted a gloomy future for the ruling Democratic Party (PD), which is expected to gain less than 5 percent of the national vote in the 2014 legislative election.
The LSI survey has found that the PD would only receive 4.7 percent of the vote if an election were to take place today, a drop from the 20.5 percent the party garnered in the 2009 legislative election.
'It will be difficult for the PD to rebound given that the election is only three months away,' Adjie said over the weekend.
The LSI said a major setback for the PD was the prosecution of a number of former party executives in graft cases.
The pollster also found that in addition to the party's poor electability, individuals competing in the PD presidential convention had failed in their attempts to improve the party's image.
The participants were barely recognized by respondents interviewed in the LSI survey.
According to the study, if an election were to take place today, none of the 11 participants in the PD presidential primary would secure more than 3 percent of the vote.
State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, for example, would garner only 2.5 percent of the vote, while former Army chief Gen. (ret) Pramono Edhie Wibowo would get 2.1 percent.
House of Representatives Speaker Marzuki Alie, meanwhile, would receive 2 percent of the vote.
Other participants in the convention would secure less than 2 percent of the vote.
'This is significant when considering the large number of votes garnered by Yudhoyono in the 2004 and 2009 presidential elections. He secured more than 60 percent of the vote,' said the LSI's Adjie.
With the PD seemingly out of the running, the LSI predicted only Golkar and the PDI-P could seriously entertain finishing first in the 2014 legislative election.
The LSI predicted the PDI-P would secure 18.3 percent against Golkar's 18.2 percent, and found that if an election were to take place today, the PD would lag behind Prabowo's Gerindra, which was expected to garner 8.7 percent of the vote.
Various pollsters have cited a string of corruption cases behind the PD's slump.
Last year, the National Survey Institute (LSN) found only 5.9 percent of voters would vote for the party from a previous level of 10.5 percent.
Last year, the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) named then-PD chairman Anas Urbaningrum a graft suspect for allegedly accepting a bribe in relation to the construction of the Hambalang sports complex.
The KPK has also named senior PD politician and former youth and sports minister Andi Mallarangeng a suspect in the Hambalang graft case, which had a budget that ballooned from Rp 300 million (US$24,563) under the previous minister to Rp 2.5 trillion under Andi.