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RI population may reach 304.9m in 2035: UGM
Around 20 years from now, Indonesia could be populated by 304
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round 20 years from now, Indonesia could be populated by 304.9 million people with 2 million people entering the workforce annually, the Center for Population and Policy Studies (PSKK) at Gadjah Mada University (UGM) in Yogyakarta has reported.
The estimation is part of the PSKK's survey and research involving a number of researchers, such as Sukamdi, Eddy Kiswanto, Arif Fahrudin Alfana and Agus Joko Pitoyo.
The research was conducted based on several factors such as birth rate, mortality rate and social and economic factors.
'This is part of a challenge; a large population can represent tremendous potential or it can be a burden to development, depending on how you address and prepare for it,' said Agus.
He said the estimation from the PSKK differed slightly from the projection by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), which estimated the future population at around 306.6 million people, and the United Nations' projection of 303.38 million.
According to Agus, if the growing population was harnessed correctly, human resources would hold extraordinary potential for the country.
However, if not managed well, substantial population growth would instead hinder progress.
'Without qualified human resources, large population growth will only be a burden on development,' Agus added.
Head researcher Sukamdi said another issue that had to be addressed was a surge in the elderly population.
'In 2010, the number of senior citizens was 11.8 million. In 2035, we estimate the number will increase to 32.11 million,' said Sukamdi.
Besides that, in the next 21 years, there would be an additional 50 million people entering the workforce, or 2 million new workers annually.
From 2020, the demographic bonus in the form of the young generation and a productive age range would eventually begin.
'We, the Republic of Indonesia will then have big potential to become a prosperous nation and a welfare state if everything is well prepared,' said Sukamdi.
Besides demographic management, a lecturer at UGM's School of Agriculture Jangkung Handoyo Mulyo said the agriculture sector should be prioritized.
'Farming must get special attention due to the lack of technology that is able to produce food without cultivation. The demand for food will continue to rise. We still import rice, corn, meat and salt,' Jangkung said.
'The food issue is a matter of life and death for a nation. If it is not fulfilled, a major disaster will occur and we need more radical efforts to overcome it,' he said, quoting former president Sukarno.
'The statement by president Sukarno is very relevant. Our average consumption is 139 kilograms per capita per year, while every year 400,000 hectares of fertile farmland are sacrificed for development,' Jangkung said.
Besides that, he went on, food crop diversification must be developed to reduce the burden on rice availability.
Food productivity in the country must also be boosted as the number was still low compared to China, India and Vietnam.
'Our national rice production rate is 5.136 kg per hectare, while Vietnam is 5.631 kg per hectare,' he pointed out.
